Friday, November 01, 1996

NOVEMBER 1996 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



NOVEMBER 1996 Edition

TRADE SURPLUS
            Canada's exports grew by 2.7% in August, reaching a record $23.2 billion. The gain reflected healthy vehicle exports and a rebound in sales of grain and other agricultural products. Shipments to all trading partners except Japan gained ground, but U.S.‑bound exports were strongest, due mainly to automotive exports. Imports slackened after two months of steady growth, dipping 2.7% to $19.1 billion. Weakness was widespread, but machinery, industrial goods and auto parts played major roles. Imports from the United States and European trading partners fell the most. Export strength and import slippage resulted in the largest trade surplus on record ($4.0 billion).

FOOD PROCESSORS
            Canadian food processing companies are mired in tough competition at home and must buy out their rivals and look to foreign markets to improve flagging profits.   A survey by Deloitte & Touche found that the pretax return on equity for Canadian food processors fell to 12 per cent last year from 16 per cent in 1994. U.S. processors, meanwhile, managed to increase their return to a record 36.2 per cent from 34.2 per cent for the same period. U.S companies produced better returns in part because of greater population density, which reduced transportation costs, and less competition from grocers' private-label brands than in Canada.     

RRSP'S
            Home buyers have cashed in nearly $4 billion in RRSP's to take advantage of a federal tax incentive to boost the housing market. A study from Canada Mortgage and Housing shows that more than 402,000 individuals and families purchased homes because of the program set up in 1992 which allows people to take up to $20,000 out of RRSP's tax free, to buy a home, as long as it is repaid within 15 years. Over $3.8 billion have been removed from RRSP accounts over the past four years. An estimated 65,000 are expected to use the program this year. Almost two thirds of the activity occurred in the first two years until Ottawa decided it would apply only to first-time buyers.

POPULATION
            Canada's population reached 30 million late this summer and should be 35 million by 2010. The population was 10 million in 1929, 20 million in 1966 and 25 million in 1982. Half the country's growth now comes from immigration. Last year 215,000 immigrants came to Canada. The vast majority settled in Ontario (55 per cent) or B.C. (21 per cent).

WOMEN
            A study involving 6,403 questionnaires by the Foundation for Future Leadership, found that women do a better job than men in 28 of 31 key management categories, including keeping productivity high and generating ideas, but do poorly at handling frustration. It found that women have better intuitive skills than men, and also outperform men in logic-based skills such as meeting deadlines and problem solving.

MEN
            A survey by the Food and Consumer Products Manufacturers of Canada shows that men are doing far less grocery shopping than six years ago, despite hints that the women's movement was turning out more male shoppers. Men make up only 15 per cent of all grocery shoppers now, down from a high of 21 per cent in 1991 and a little above the 13 per cent level of 1987. This means that advertisers have not been far off the mark in stereotyping women as the prime shopper who worries about which products to buy. The study also found that men spend more on a per person basis when shopping, spending an average of $45 a week while women spend $37 a week.

AFRICA
            Companies need to know what the future high-growth markets are. United Nations demographers say Africa is the only major region that will gain a larger share of world population over the next 30 years. Its portion should explode to nearly 20 per cent by 2025, from the current 13.5 per cent. The continent is expected to rocket to a staggering 1.6 billion people from 750 million. Some countries and even regions, most of Europe for instance, are expected to shrink as a result of declining family size and of rising death rates in an aging population. And as Africa moves towards industrialization, it will become an enormous market for the right goods and services.

COMPLAINTS
            Companies can do more harm than good by soliciting customer complaints when they have a poor system to handle them. Hepworth & Co, a consulting firm, surveyed more than 38,000 customers of 25 large Canadian companies between 1994 and 1996 and found that it can be a dangerous approach if it isn't accompanied by a good response system. Companies lose more business by handling complaints badly than by never hearing them at all. The survey also found that only one in four people who complained were satisfied with the response they received.

PHONES
   Once marketed mainly as a business tool, cellular phones are now making their way into the average home. While 14.1% of Canadian households have a cellular phone, the proportion jumps to 20.8% in Alberta. Canadians love their telephones, whether regular and cellular. Nationally, almost 4 in 10 households have three or more regular telephones. In Alberta, 45.5% of households have three or more phones, the highest proportion in the nation. This drops to 28.4% in New Brunswick, where the proportion is the lowest.

OPPORTUNITY
            The phone is ringing at the town office in Swan Hills, Alberta, including a call from Sweden. Officials are so desperate for business they have started to give away land. They plan to disburse 28 fully serviced lots. The community of 2,300 is 170 kilometres north of Edmonton and is best known as the home of a hazardous waste treatment centre. The town wishes to attract more business to diversify its economy.

COSTS
            Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are the most expensive Canadian cities in which to live. According to Runzheimer Canada, a relocation company, a family of four in Toronto would have to spend $87,400 annually to sustain a lifestyle that would cost only $74,000 in Edmonton and Saint John. It would cost $86,800 in Vancouver and $83,400 in Montreal. (The median cost in all Canadian cities is $75,000.) The hypothetical lifestyle includes a 2,000-square-foot, eight-room house in a suburban area and two cars, one a 1996 model.

ROBOTICS
            Artificial workers are making a comeback. After peaking at almost 81,000 units in 1990, worldwide sales of industrial robots fell to just over 56,000 in 1993. Last year however, sales surged by 26 per cent to 75,500 units and are expected to grow by 15 per cent for the rest of the 1990s. Japan is still the biggest user of industrial robots buying 36,500 last year, almost half of the world's total. The U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Italy invested in another 23,000 robots between them.

TAIWAN
            An affluent country about the size of Vancouver Island, but with a population of over 21 million potential consumers with a per capita income of US$13,500, Taiwan has experienced an 8 per cent economic growth rate for the past 30 years and is Canada's eighth‑largest export market. It is also one that offers increasing opportunities, particularly for those committed to the long term. Two‑way trade in 1995 totalled almost $5 billion. Canadian exports to Taiwan that year were valued at $2.2 billion, an increase of 40 per cent over 1994. While some of this trade consisted of traditional Canadian exports, there has been diversification. In little more than a year, some 20 to 25 new Canadian products have been introduced into Taiwan.

TECHNOLOGY
            It used to be that an auction for 13,200 cattle was a noisy affair. But at the Highwood Auction Company in Alberta where $10 million worth of cattle recently changed hands, the only sound that could be heard above the auctioneer's patter was the ring of cell phones. This event was part of an emerging trend called a satellite cattle auction. The heifers, steers and calves had been videotaped earlier on their home ranches. The videotape was then broadcast over the Anik E1 satellite on Channel 20 starting at 6.00pm sharp and the catalogue sent over the Internet. It is expected that 150,000 cattle will be sold in Canada via satellite this year

FREER TRADE
            Leaders of the 12 member states of the Southern Africa Development Community have agreed to a trade protocol which commits them to establishing a free-trade area within eight years. This marks the first time that South Africa has signed a multilateral trade agreement with a number of countries that were opposed to its former apartheid regime.
           
BANANAS
            For fifteen years the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC), has been funding research in Honduras into a better banana. They are hoping to create a variety without the disease problems of the familiar Cavendish banana sold everywhere which suffers from a black fungus when growing. Called the Mona Lisa, the IDRC first presented the stubby little banana to the public in 1994. Trouble was, it was in the developmental stage and no one was actually marketing it. Test batches have recently been sold in Ottawa and it is hoped they will be available across Canada next year.

POST-INDUSTRIALIZATION
            According to John Kettle, a consulting futurist, it has been half a century since Canada was an industrialized nation--that is, one whose economy is driven and dominated by manufacturing, construction and non-renewable resources. The peak was in 1953 when 40 per cent of our GDP was derived from industry. The figure is now down to about 28 per cent and dropping, likely to follow agriculture which now accounts for just 4 per cent of GDP. We are now in a post-industrial, service-oriented phase, Kettle suggests, which implies that, at some point, we will import almost all our goods as other countries are able to manufacture everything better and cheaper.

PARODY
            Two Liberal MP's have introduced a private member's bill in the House of Commons parodying the U.S. Helms-Burton act which allows foreign businesses to be sued if they are using land confiscated after the 1969 Cuban revolution. The bill would allow Canadians who lost property in the American Revolution to do the same. The sponsors insist the bill is no joke citing the descendants of James Osborne, a captain in the British army. Under the Canadian bill, they would have claim to 500 acres in Washington, including the land underneath the White House. Private bills rarely pass!

PROFITS
            The world's biggest companies fattened their profits by nearly 15 per cent in 1995, and did it with roughly the same number of workers as they had in 1994, Fortune magazine reports. The U.S. was home to the largest number of the 500 biggest companies with 153, followed by Japan with 141, France with 42, Germany with 40 and Britain with 32. The most profitable industries included airlines, brokerages enriched by booming markets and paper companies that commanded premium prices. The collective profits of the 500 totalled $323.3 billion (U.S.), an increase of 14.7 per cent. But the number of workers the companies employed rose only 1.8 per cent to 35.12 million, with some companies slashing jobs.

DUMB
            The FBI estimates that 45 bank robbers are caught each year in the U.S. after writing their holdup notes on the back of their personalized deposit slips.

Tuesday, October 01, 1996

OCTOBER 1996 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



OCTOBER 1996 Edition

TAX BREAKS
            The New Brunswick government is offering a sales tax rebate of up to $250 to residents who buy a home computer by December 31. The government wants as many people as possible, whether in urban or rural areas, to have computers stating that access to computer networks can provide residents with improved education, business, government and entertainment services and make the province more competitive. The government estimates that about 32 per cent, or 80,000, households in the province currently have a PC and hopes the rebate program will add another 10,000. 

TRUCKING
            U.S. trucking firm J.B. Hunt Transport Service Inc. has stunned the transport industry by announcing plans for onetime pay increases averaging 33 per cent to take effect next February. The company said the move is aimed at solving severe labour shortages. However, analysts are afraid it may have more sweeping consequences for the U.S. economy such as higher shipping costs for billions of dollars of consumer goods. Truckload carriers now employ more than 300,000 drivers yet need 10 to 15 per cent more. Trucking controls about 79 per cent of the $460 billion U.S. freight bill.

DINING OUT
            The average Japanese consumer ate $2,000 (US) worth of food away from home last year, making them the world's biggest fans of restaurants and food outlets. Overall, they spent $263 billion on dining out last year. Japanese diners spent more than twice as much as their nearest rivals, the Americans, who consumed food worth $950 per capita away from home while Europeans spent from $435 to $810 per capita eating out.

FORESTRY
            An Industry Canada report states that the former Soviet Union's vast softwood forests threaten the competitiveness of Canada's forest products industry. Wood products exports from the Baltic States are already eroding Canadian market share in the European market. In 1995, exports of Canadian wood and pulp and paper totalled $41.2 billion. As many as 225,000 people work in the forests and mills across Canada and up to 675,000 other jobs are indirectly supported by the industry. The report said fast-growing forest plantations in Chile, New Zealand and Australia are also a threat.      

GAS STATIONS           
            Canada's major oil companies are cutting back on giveaways such as mugs, glassware and books and concentrating on enticing motorists with diversified gasoline stations which put neighbourhood convenience stores to shame. Gas stations have been bruised after battling retail chains which specialize in oil changes, tune-ups and other services. Industry observers say the new focus on convenience stores and fast food outlets represents a widespread retreat from automotive service and speculate that a typical gas station of the future might sell only oil and windshield fluid in addition to gasoline, with only a few providing car repairs.

LABOUR COSTS
            Unit labour costs measure the total cost of labour required to produce one unit of output. They are driven up by inflation and downward by gains in labour productivity. In most industrialized countries, labour costs have been growing slowly over the past five years. The average annual increase in labour costs in selected countries was lower during the 1990-95 period than during 1985-90. The biggest change was in Sweden where costs rose at an annual rate of 6.6 per cent while unit costs in
Canada and the U.S. rose only 0.3 per cent.

U.S. EXPORTERS
            A recent Coopers & Lybrand study of 434 fastest-growing U.S. companies showed a 31.2 per cent sales increase for 204 that were exporting, compared with 24.9 per cent for the nonexporters. A similar survey three years ago revealed a much smaller growth gap: 26.4 per cent for exporters versus 22.5 per cent for those staying domestic. The exporters said they expect their sales outside the U.S. to zoom 66 per cent this year. Not all exporters are manufacturers. Of companies surveyed that planned to start exporting this year, more than half are service providers. The median company reported 70 employees and annual sales of $7 million.

TECHNOLOGY
            Scientists in Antarctica studying the world's environment have been looking for a solution on how best to track penguins, a critical part of their research. They are now using barcodes, similar to the ones used at supermarket check-outs, glued to the beaks of the penguins. The equipment has to work in temperatures as low as -73 C and an infrared reader be able to detect the codes from great distances. While the concept works, biologists are not finding the penguins very cooperative.

INTERPROVINCIAL TRADE
            Trade among the provinces was almost as important to the national economy as exports in the early 1990s. One in every six private-sector jobs was linked to the production of goods and services sold across provincial or territorial boundaries. Interprovincial trade accounted for $141 billion of economic output, compared to $161 billion in exports abroad. B.C. had the largest interprovincial trade deficit at $8 billion but was second only to Alberta in its surplus in international trade.           

VANCOUVER
            The B.C-initiated International Maritime Centre (IMC) was set up to take advantage of federal policy which exempts international shipping companies from Canadian resident-corporation taxes. A recent benefit study shows that since 1993, 21 companies which control more than 200 ships, have established offices in Canada, 18 of them in Vancouver (10 of them from Hong Kong). These offices employ around 350 persons with an approximate annual payroll of $17 million. Business expenditures in Canada are about $30 million a year.      

SMALLTOWN U.S.A.
            Commerce Department figures are showing a surprising trend. Small, little-known towns are drawing in new factories and shattering the myth that manufacturing is dying in the hinterlands. From 1989 to 1994, rural counties gained 167,000 new manufacturing jobs, while urban counties lost 1,172,000 of them. The rural gains are all the more striking, coming as manufacturers produce more goods with fewer workers. Small communities, where land is cheaper, are luring manufacturers by offering tax breaks, low wages and taxes and a reliable work force.

OPEN SKIES
            Government is finding that economic growth and creating jobs can be spurred by changing regulations rather than just writing cheques. A case in point is the 18 month-old Open Skies air agreement between Canada and the U.S. This piece of cross-border deregulation has been a jobs bonanza in places such as Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal. The deal has spawned more than 100 new scheduled service routes between Canada's largest 10 cities and U.S. centres. Vancouver Airport is adding 1,000 jobs annually, paying on average 33 per cent above the provincial industrial wage. Montreal has added 1,000 new jobs to service the 33 new routes across the border. Since 1995, Calgary has doubled its number of direct connections to the U.S.

MINIATURIZATION
            Japan has developed the "micro-car", a replica, at one one-thousandth the size, of Toyota's first automobile. As tiny as a grain of rice, the minuscule vehicle has 24 parts, including tires, wheels, axles, headlights and taillights, and hubcaps that carry the company name in microscopic letters. The motor, which itself is made of five parts, is only 0.7 millimetres in diameter and can propel the car at speeds of up to five centimetres a second. Already the world's masters of miniaturization, Japanese companies, backed by the government, are hoping to make complete machines the size of insects with parts as small as specks of dust. Miniaturization is one of the most promising industries of the future with the potential to revolutionize fields like manufacturing and medicine.  

COMPETITION
            Massive change is facing drugstores where pharmacists face competition from a range of rivals, including mail order companies, supermarkets and department stores. The stakes are high as aging consumers spend more on medication and heath-care aids as well as demanding more information on available products. In a bid to counter this, Zellers Inc. of Montreal, which runs pharmacies across the country, is about to offer "good-heath clinics" covering such topics as asthma, diabetes, depression, heart conditions and arthritis. The mobile clinics will tour the country over the next year. At each site, a pharmacist and a registered nurse will run the clinic. About 15,000 people visited Zellers stores over the summer for pilot clinics on cholesterol and allergies.

FUEL EFFICIENCY
            For years, auto makers have been looking for an engine that uses little fuel, has low emissions and develops great horsepower. Now a new generation of cars with fuel sipping engines but zippy acceleration are about to hit showrooms. First out is Mitsubishi which introduced two new models in Japan this summer. They have a clever new engine which borrows ideas from diesel trucks and traditional lead burning engines. Compared with a conventional engine of comparable size, Mitsubishi claims its new GDI (gasoline direct injection) motor uses 35 per cent less fuel, produces 35 per cent less carbon dioxide and  95 per cent less nitrogen oxide and yet turns out 10 per cent more power.

ONLINE
            U.S. computer users are spending an average of 12 hours a month online, down from 16 hours last year suggesting that the rhetoric about cyberspace being the next TV is a little premature.

CANADIAN TRADE
            Canada's trade surplus retreated slightly in July but continued to reflect a booming export sector that is expanding its presence in two key markets--the United States and Japan. Statistics Canada reports that exports exceeded imports by $3.07 billion. Canada's surplus with Japan almost doubled, rising to $633 million and the balance with the U.S. edged up to $3.84 billion. However, Canada's deficit with all other countries grew to $1.4 billion. Much of the gain with the U.S. came from resurgent lumber shipments, up nearly a third because of higher prices and a stronger U.S. housing market, and robust exports of auto parts.

TRAVEL
            Higher economic growth and lower unemployment should bode well for the Canadian travel industry in 1997 according to the Conference Board of Canada. They are forecasting pleasure travel within Canada will increase 3.2 per cent compared to 2.6 per cent for the economy. Domestic business trips should increase by 3 per cent. It is expected that the number of Canadians travelling to the U.S. will pick up in 1996 and 1997 after five years of declining numbers. The outlook for U.S. and overseas travellers to Canada is optimistic with British Columbia and Alberta the main beneficiaries.        

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
            In 1995, the number of law-school applicants in the U.S. was down 16 per cent over 1991. There were about 896,000 attorneys in the country--one for each 290 people.

EMOTIONS
            Last month, at a symposium on the Riemann Hypothesis in Seattle, mathematicians gave Atle Selberg a standing ovation for his brilliant lecture on the history of prime-number theory. Such demonstrations of emotion are rare among mathematicians.

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