Monday, February 01, 1993

FEBRUARY 1993 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



FEBRUARY 1993 Edition

EUROPE
            The European countries are anxious to unite their economies while protecting their work forces. A Social Charter, still to be ratified, is supposed to stop exploitation of different wage levels between countries. However, the U.S. based Hoover Co. has just moved vacuum cleaner production from Dijon in France, where they have sacked 650 workers, to Scotland where they will take on 400 workers at much lower terms.
            Meanwhile, some of the Community's more notorious legislative proposals include an EC-wide standard size for condoms, an eye-in-the-sky satellite to make sure the nine million farmers aren't lying when they report land taken out of use for compensation, and a change in classification for the carrot, from vegetable status to that of fruit.
            So concerned are the faces behind the Brussels bureaucracy, the EC policy-making body, that they have organized a PR campaign to help revamp the EC's floundering image and get its message across.

CROSS-BORDER SHOPPING
            Now that the shoe is on the other foot, retailers are claiming that Canadian tax laws are discouraging them from trying to lure U.S. shoppers north of the border. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities is recommending tax changes which would allow Canadian retailers to deduct American advertising as a business expense. Currently, tax laws do not allow such deductions but U.S. tax laws allow American merchants to deduct advertising costs incurred in Canada.
            Businesses are concerned that at a time when they can at last offer lower prices than Americans, they are unable to spread the word along border communities.
           
EMPLOYMENT
            Statistics Canada has at last declared the recession to be over and in the U.S. they have had the seventh straight quarter of expansion and the fastest in four years. The biggest leap in the index of leading indicators in almost 10 years. Durable goods orders are up 9 per cent in one month.
            However, economists have been mystified by the difference in the unemployment rates. In January, the Canadian jobless rate was 11.0%, while the U.S. rate was only 7.1%. Canadian and U.S. jobless rates were very similar until the 1981-82 recession. The gap opened then but there was no single event, no change in social policy, demographic change or change in industrial structure to account for it.
            A UBC\Princeton study is now offering some clues. Apparently, more Canadians than Americans were looking for work, which automatically classified them as unemployed.  About a quarter of Canadian unemployed men worked exactly the period required to qualify for UI, which raises the question of whether they would have worked longer in the U.S. where unemployment requirements are stiffer and is Canada's UI system a disincentive to working longer? Canadian women who are off work spend more time seeking new jobs than their U.S. counterparts.
            There is a related phenomenon among men who do not work at all--a group that includes the retired and disabled who were not even job seeking as well as those who were. In Canada, 13 per cent of such men said they spent the entire year looking unsuccessfully for work, compared with only 3.6% in the U.S.  

BOEING
            On January 27th, Boeing announced that it will cut production by as much as 35% over the next 18 months. Buyers have cancelled or delayed scores of orders because of airline losses blamed on a Gulf-related collapse in tourism, fare wars and the economic turndown. The company has not yet said how many jobs will be affected but observers estimate it could be between 10,000 and 20,000. Boeing ended 1992 with about 98,000 Puget Sound employees, down 6,000 from the year before. 
            The layoffs will be felt through the housing market, retail sector and other fields. A Boeing job is usually credited with generating two or more others. More than 200 Canadian companies have contracts with Boeing.

RED TAPE
            MPs are at last trying to come to grips with some of the more absurd regulations which affect our competitiveness at home and abroad. Two examples: Kimberly-Clark of Canada Ltd. can't export facial tissue to the U.S. market because Canadian regulations dictate how many tissues go in a package which prevents marketing one size for both countries. This is a lost opportunity to increase production in Canada while giving the consumer a cheaper product.
            For reasons only bureaucrats can fathom, Canadian grocers must sell food in cans that are 3 1/16 inches in diameter. Most U.S. canners prefer using a three-inch can. So if a shipment of baked beans becomes available [in the U.S.] at a discount price, a Canadian grocer cannot import it and pass the savings on to consumers.
            "Parliament has lost control of the regulatory process," says a recently released report by MPs. Bureaucrats at opposite ends of the country enforce one rule differently even though they work for the same federal department.

FREE TRADE
            With the duty rates on fabric falling, Jantzen Canada, the sportswear manufacturer, is finding it economical to send fabrics to Canada to be sewn into swimsuits and to export the finished suits for U.S. sales. They have added 65 Canadian jobs and now employ an all time high of 300. 75 per cent of their swimsuit production goes to the States which represents about 12 per cent of Jantzen's U.S. swimwear sales.
            While planning one of the recent inaugural extravaganzas, it was discovered that there were not enough flags for a Peace Corps presentation in the parade and they had to turn to a Canadian company for help. They did not have enough flags to represent the 126 countries where Peace Corps volunteers had served in the past 31 years. A search of companies in the $300-million U.S. flag industry on a Saturday found no flags for several countries because most firms were closed.
            A call went out to Canadiana Banners and Flags of Mississauga where the staff were on duty. The flag designs were copied from reference books, read into a computer, screened over the weekend and shipped to Washington on Monday.

MARKETING BOARDS
            Although the GATT talks are presently stalled in Geneva, Canadian marketing boards continue to fight the inevitable changes which will see subsidies replaced with decreasing tariffs to the benefit of the consumer. Now the dairy industry wants to revamp the marketing board system for the first time in 25 years.
Among their proposals:
* Abandon provincial boards in favour of one national board.
* Remove interprovincial barriers to trade.
* Harmonize milk regulations and prices across the country.
* Close unnecessary butter and byproduct plants.
* Encourage exporters with a guaranteed supply of lower-cost milk.
* Promote new and innovative products.
* Revise the way supermarkets sell milk to raise processors profits and cut costs for consumers by getting rid of things like shelving allowances.        
           
HYDRO
            In Ontario electricity is expensive and some customers are not willing to pay any more. At the University of Toronto, engineers have built their own generating station which will supply one third of their needs and waste heat from the project will be piped into classrooms and laboratories on campus and used to heat water. The kilowatt-hour cost will be about a third of that charged by Toronto Hydro. The power plant is a small gas turbine and generator housed in an old coal storage shed and can be run around the clock for months on end.
            The prospects for dramatic savings are such that organizations like Labatt Breweries, Kimberly-Clark, Fanshawe College, the Etobicoke Olympian, H. J. Heinz and Falconbridge, the province's biggest single power buyer, have built, or are building, their own power facilities.

SOUTH PACIFIC
            Australia has achieved the lowest inflation rate in the developed world with 0.3%, the lowest in 30 years. The country already has a very successful free trade agreement with New Zealand which has eliminated all tariffs several years ahead of schedule and the Australian Prime Minister has now stated that he backs the idea of a free trade deal with Japan.
            In New Zealand, once one of the most protected economies, things are at last turning around after 10 lean years. Exchange controls have been removed, the dollar floated, and the financial markets deregulated. Subsidies have been reduced and import protection reduced. Many enterprises previously run by government are now privatized with dramatic results. For example, New Zealand's Railway, once an inefficient government department now moves freight more quickly, makes a profit and has a staff of 5,100 compared to 22,000 a decade ago.

UNITED STATES
            A consensus seems to be emerging indicating that NAFTA may now not be approved in the U.S. in time for a January 1st 1994 implementation despite assurances by President Clinton to the contrary.
            The President is committed to side deals on labour and the environment before sending NAFTA to Congress and the problem is how to pay for any readjustment programs for U.S. workers who lose their jobs as a result of the trilateral trade deal as well as to find funds for the promised deficit reduction.
            A surcharge on energy imports from Canada has been suggested as well as a .875% import surcharge on ALL exports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. These ideas probably contravene the Canada-U.S. FTA as well as the GATT, but give an indication that trade irritants between Canada and the U.S. are likely to intensify under a highly protectionist Congress.

OTTAWA
            Since 1986, cash buyouts and other payments to 13,000 civil servants have cost the taxpayer $325-million. A report by the Auditor-General shows that many of the payments went to civil servants who shouldn't have received them.
            At least 800 of the federal civil servants who were given cash buyouts to quit the bureaucracy ended up back on the federal payroll. In many cases, the so-called surplus employees were replaced soon afterward by other employees doing the same work.
            In an audit of 396 buyouts payments examined by the Auditor-General, 35 per cent were found to be unjustified and 29 per cent were questionable. Only 29 per cent of payments were found to be well founded.
            In one situation, employees who received buyout agreements in a government unit were found to be working in a similar unit nearby shortly after the end of the six-month period for which they received payment.

TRIVIA
            The public service in the major, western industrial, nations has grown at a rate nearly twice that of the private sector since the 1970s. Federal governments now consume an average of 24.9% of their nations' gross domestic product and all levels of government an average of 43.4%.
  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (% OF GDP, 1990)
Italy                                                      40.8%
Britain                                                  33.3%
U.S                                                       23.5%
CANADA                                               22.9%

           ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT
Italy                                                      53.8%
France                                                  49.8%
CANADA                                               47.3%   
            Federally appointed judges, who earn more than $150,000 a year, say a two-year freeze on their salaries may be unconstitutional because they were not consulted and are considering taking the government to court.

Friday, January 01, 1993

JANUARY 1993 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



                                                                                                               
JANUARY 1993 Edition

NAFTA
            President-elect Clinton has met with Mexican President Salinas and promised to move quickly to resolve outstanding differences on the proposed free-trade pact. Clinton has said he supports the pact but wants separate agreements passed to protect the environment and U.S. workers. Salinas said that Clinton had underscored that the text of the agreement would not be reopened. Clinton has also announced that Prime Minister Mulroney will be the first foreign leader with whom he will meet after Inauguration Day. The NAFTA still has to be approved by the legislatures of all three countries.

FOOD-LABELLING FOR U.S.
            Canadian food exporters to the U.S. will soon be faced with an expensive hurdle. By May 1994, fresh vegetables, fish and meat will have to be labelled for the first time and all foods will require comprehensive nutritive tests which could cost between $600 and $1,000 and will be needed for every product shipped across the border to retail outlets.
            In general, the act requires all food manufacturers--whether U.S. or foreign--to declare the nutritional content of their products. It suggests the size of servings and clarifies any health claims the product may make. The content requirements are simpler and easier to understand than in the past. Information must be printed in a prescribed size, colour and type face, in the same place on the package, and any health claim must be adequately explained.

CROSS-BORDER SHOPPING
            Point Roberts, Washington, has almost as many gas pumps as residents and the effect of the dropping dollar is now being felt. In December, border traffic was down by 25% over 1991, profits are dropping and employees are being laid off. As many as 45% of the local work force is jobless. At one store, sales are down by 40%. In 1980, low Canadian gas prices virtually closed down the border community and only one service station was open and the others were boarded up in anticipation of better days ahead.
            In New Brunswick, some Americans are getting a free ride on the health-care system. The medicare director is enlisting the help of Crime Stoppers to prevent Americans getting access to thousands of dollars worth of free health care. Many have managed to obtain provincial medicare numbers and about 20 Americans are caught each year for defrauding the system.
           
EMPLOYMENT
            British Columbia led Canada in job creation in 1992 with most of the new jobs being in the service industries. Last December, Vancouver and Victoria had the lowest unemployment rates at 8.9% and 8.2% respectively.   The average annual unemployment rate of 11.3% was a nine-year high and the second highest average on record, well above the rest of the industrialized world where the average rate is less than eight per cent.
            In the east, The Canadian steel industry may have hit on a successful strategy for retraining laid-off workers and launching them on new careers. In the past four-and-a-half years, a program run by steel industry executives and the United Steelworkers of America, has trained more than 8,000 laid-off workers as computer specialists, environmental technicians, nurses--even lawyers and teachers and boasts a job-placement rate of more than 60 per cent. It has been hailed as a model for other industries. Another 3,000 will be in training by next summer.

EUROPE
            January 1st saw the European Community's single market come into force. However, the seven-year-old plan to achieve full freedom of movement within the EC for people, goods, services and capital still has a long way to go.
            Passport checks have not been scrapped entirely because of concerns about terrorists, drug traffickers and illegal immigrants, and there will be delays ranging from months to years on a host of liberalization measures, from freeing competition in EC life insurance to trade in bananas and Japanese cars. Customs checks on goods at internal EC borders ended though there will be some checks to prevent the illegal importing of hazardous waste from neighbouring countries.
            Of the 282 directives, or pieces of European legislation, that form the basis of the Single Market program, 260 were adopted by EC leaders as of December 17. Of that total, 177 require member governments to follow through with legislation of their own. Despite efforts to arrive at single standards for the market, each country still has a different plug for electrical appliances: railway rolling stock cannot easily move from country to country; voltages are different and signalling is not uniform
            British truckers are rejoicing that they no longer have to stop and fill in the 54-box Single Administrative Document before boarding a ferry for France. This is estimated to save businesses between $80 and $90 and hours of waiting time at the border per trip.
            Ironically, until 1999 it is still permissable to buy "duty-free" wine, spirits and cigarettes when travelling between EC countries and duty-free allowance have been doubled.

LABOUR   
            Reacting to recent controversial labour legislation, B.C. businesses appear to be going on the offensive to show their displeasure about the law as well as increased corporate taxes, new restrictions on resource extraction and plans to raise the minimum wage.
            First, the Coalition of B.C. Businesses which includes the B.C. Chambers of Commerce and comprises 24 organizations representing 50,000 businesses, is threatening a challenge to the new labour code under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom. Second, many high profile B.C. business executives have dropped out of the planned visit to the annual World Economic Forum, set for Davos, Switzerland later in January which is attended by about 1200 chief executive officers and heads of government from around the world. Premier Harcourt of B.C. is still scheduled to go.

TEXTILES
            After a series of raids on the U.S. offices of China's textile companies, the U.S. Customs Service has switched gears and is offering a series of seminars in Hong Kong and China to teach manufacturers there how to comply with U.S. import laws.
            The seminars follow a 19-month investigation of China's textile export practices which have resulted in indictments on customs-fraud charges of Chinese companies--including some owned by the Chinese government--their officials and U.S. importers. They were accused of trying to evade duties and import quotas by falsely labelling products made in China and shipping them to the U.S. through other countries.

COMPETITIVENESS
            According to the Canadian Manufacturers Association, Canada's industrial competitiveness continued to slip in 1992 as companies lost market share in both domestic and world markets and failed to keep pace with other countries by investing in new technology.
            Production by Canadian manufacturers has risen by 13.5% since 1980, but in the other Group of Seven industrial nations the increase was 32 per cent. During the same period, unit labour costs increased by more than 60 per cent in Canada compared with 33% in the other G7 nations--the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Britain. Overall competitiveness in other G7 nations improved by 34 per cent in the past 12 years, while Canada's increase was only 22 per cent.
            It takes Canadian companies seven hours and 52 minutes out of eight hours of production to cover overhead, and five minutes to pay taxes, leaving only three minutes to earn the profits needed for reinvestment.

AUTOMOBILES
            The $339-billion automobile industry which accounts for 10% of Japan's overall economy is in trouble, a major factor in their deepening recession. Domestic car and truck sales are down 13% from the 1990 peak of 7.7 million vehicles and profits for the five biggest car makers--Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi and Mazda-- are off about 64% from the same year.
            The U.S. market is making a modest comeback with car sales having increased an estimated 1.5% in 1992. The Japanese share of the U.S. market has retreated slightly to 30%. Also helping is the fact that Japanese companies are weak in the light-truck category which allowed Dodge and Ford to get the lion's share of this niche market that grew more than 18% last year to 4.5 million vehicles.
            The strong Yen and inflated prices have made Japanese vehicles about $1,500 more than an American-built mid-priced vehicles.

EARNINGS
            According to a recent World Bank report, the Swiss are the world's top wage earners receiving an equivalent of $35,510 US a year. Canada finished 11th with its citizens earning $21,260 per capita, behind Switzerland, Luxembourg, Japan, Sweden, Finland Norway, Denmark, (former) West Germany, Iceland and the United States. The bank calculates its wealth comparisons by taking a country's gross domestic product and dividing by the population.
            The poorest countries are in Africa where the average yearly income was $70 in Mozambique, $100 in mainland Tanzania and $130 in Ethiopia. The report lists 56 areas, from Argentina to Zambia, where the average income declined between 1980 and 1991.

FARMING
            A Singapore agronomist says the city-state could develop farms on the rooftops of high-rise apartment buildings. A year-long experiment shows that aeroponics--in which plants are anchored in polystyrene foam and grow with their roots suspended in mid-air--can produce more crops than by hydroponics and is easier to manage. Aeroponic roots are enclosed in soil-less boxes and fed nutrients by atomizers.

FREE MARKETS
            The first of the year saw the ASEAN nations--Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand--set up their own free-trade zone. They aim to cut tariffs on intra-ASEAN trade in manufacturing and processed agricultural goods to a maximum of 5 per cent over the next fifteen years. Leaders hope the large regional market will enhance ASEANs attraction as a trading partner and investment target.
            Meanwhile, the Presidents of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay sealed a deal for a common market that will go into effect January 1. 1995. The treaty calls for the four to adopt common tariffs for imports from other countries. Eventually, they are to coordinate policies for agriculture, industry, exchange rates, customs, immigration and investment.
            Inflation in Brazil, by far the biggest member, had led to concern the target date might be pushed back. Other problems include persistent trade imbalances, exchange-rate fluctuations and tariff barriers.

INVESTMENT
            According to the New York Times, this is what an investment of $1000 on July 31, 1982--before the bull market of the 1980s-- would be worth now, excluding dividends.

Coca Cola: $13,392. Philip Morris: $12,909. Merck: $12,011. Boeing: $7,330. General Electric: $5,118. Procter & Gamble: $4,899. Sears: $2,261. General Motors: $1,520. Caterpillar: $1,454. IBM: $857.

TRIVIA
*  Part-time work, temporary work and self employment account for almost one-third of all jobs in Canada and up to half of all new jobs.

*  Medicare is billed $400-million a year in a futile attempt to stamp out sniffles and sneezes. That's the cost of patients seeking medical treatment for the common cold, for which there is no real cure.

*  180 Canadians who earned $250,000 and 920 who earned over $100,000 or more in 1989 paid no tax at all.