Monday, July 01, 1996

JULY 1996 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



JULY 1996 Edition

AGRI-FOOD
            Japan is already the largest net food importing country in the world and the Canadian government believes Japan offers unprecedented opportunities for Canadian producers, processors and exporters seeking foreign markets and investment opportunities.
Farming is changing in Japan due to the limitations of the agri-food sector such as: the small size of farms, high land costs, a high proportion of part-time farmers and an aging farm population. The Yen has appreciated 240 per cent in the last decade, tariffs will decrease by a third by the year 2000 and there is an increasing acceptance of "western style' foods. In 1992, agri-food, fish and beverage imports were US$38 billion and rose to US$52 billion in 1995. Last year, Canada ranked only sixth as a supplier to the Japanese market with imports of under US$3 billion, accounting for only 5.3 per cent of Japan's food and beverage imports. Japan has 125 million wealthy consumers waiting for reliable foreign suppliers.

DOWN AND UP
            In the first five months of 1996 at least 250,000 job cuts were announced by big American companies, half as many again as in the same period last year. However, something odd is happening. Some of the most enthusiastic downsizers of the 1990s--among them IBM, AT&T, Xerox, Boeing, Chase Manhattan, K-Mart and Sears--are hiring again. Together, these companies plan to recruit well over 50,000 workers during 1996, close to a fifth of the 280,000 or so employees that have been let go during the past few years. Some experts claim that this is because of the success of downsizing. Companies have slimmed down, made themselves more efficient and refocussed on their "core competences" and can now start growing again. Others claim this is a result of the failure of downsizing.

VALUES
            Prime Ministers or Chief Political Officers are paid: in Canada $98,000, the UK $122,000, Germany $160,000 and the U.S. $200,000. In Singapore, he earns $780,000. 
COMPETITIVENESS REVISITED
            Last month we reported that the Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development had ranked the competitiveness of 46 countries in terms of the mechanisms that help create wealth. The United States was first, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. Canada was ranked 12th, after New Zealand and before Chile.
            Now, the World Economic Forum, also in Switzerland, has published a similar survey, with radically different results. Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand, with small open economies with relatively small governments, take the top three spots, with the U.S. slipping to fourth. Canada climbs to eighth and Germany which had ranked 10th drops to 22nd. The one thing upon which both studies agreed was the fact that Russia was at the bottom of both lists.

MUSTARD
            Canadian producers supply more than 95 per cent of the 25,000 tonnes of seed used every year in French mustard production. In Dijon, farmers are being encouraged to grow mustard again--currently, they can make more money with other crops.

PIPELINE
            A 17-member consortium is proposing a $3.4 billion high-pressure natural gas pipeline running from eastern British Columbia to Chicago which will force down transportation costs, cutting a disadvantage for Western Canadian producers. The plan is to build a 914-millimetre pipeline stretching 3,000 kilometres that will initially carry at least 30 million cubic metres of natural gas daily, adding about 14 per cent to exported gas pipeline capacity. The next step is to gain regulatory approval in Canada and the United States.

TRUCKS
            Canada's transportation minister has approved the idea of a high speed NAFTA super-highway linking Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. There are several trade highway proposals currently vying for attention, and money, from the public and private sectors which could cut the driving time border to border by as much as 12 hours. Trade between the three countries now amounts to C$1 billion daily and growing. There will be no final decision on a route until 1997 when Congress votes on a sweeping highway authorization bill.

HONESTY
            According to the anti-corruption group Transparency International, Nigeria, Pakistan and Kenya are perceived by the international business community as the most corrupt places to conduct business among the 54 countries surveyed. New Zealand had the best reputation for honesty, followed closely by Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Canada and Norway.

MARKETING TRENDS
            According to Northwestern University in Chicago, these are the six major shifts in marketing today:
* Mass marketing to micromarketing. Products are being pitched to segments and niches, instead of broad markets.
* Customer acquisition to customer retention.
* Market share to customer share. The idea is to attract a lot of business from a smaller, more select group of customers.
* Standardization to customization.
* Intermediary marketing to direct marketing. Sales people play less of a role in selling.
* Face-to-face marketing to electronic marketing, using Internet and other new media.

WAL-MART
            This giant U.S. retailer has all but ruled out bringing its popular Supercenter concept to Canada claiming the grocery market here is already crowded enough. While this may be good news for grocery chains, it means Canadians will miss out on one of the hottest trends sweeping the retailing industry. Supercentres--airplane hanger sized emporiums that contains a discount store and supermarket under one roof--are the fastest-growing part of the Wal-Mart business. However, some industry observers feel the move is inevitable. By adding food, consumers could be visiting Wal-Mart 50 times a year. As of January, 239 Supercentres were operating in the U.S., 13 in Mexico, two in Brazil and one in Argentina. There are presently 134 Wal-Mart discount stores in Canada.

SAND
            Miami, known worldwide for its famous beaches is running out of sand. Officials are considering hauling in truckloads of sand from distant mines to rebuild the eroding shoreline and keep Miami's $8 billion annual tourism industry afloat. In some places, waves have eroded up to 270 feet of beach in the last four years and some beaches have been rebuilt a dozen times since 1970. Officials are even considering buying sand from Caribbean islands or mining the ocean floor off the coast. 

TRAVEL AGENTS
            Canada's two largest airlines are capping travel-agent commissions, a move that is expected to drive up ticket prices and push small agencies out of business. Airlines will probably pay agents a maximum of $30 for a one-way ticket and $60 for a round trip. A result may be that independent agencies could be forced to consolidate into chains and charge ticket buyers a fee to make up for the lost commission. They were capped in the U.S. last year and some U.S. agencies now charge $15 to $35 every time they sell a ticket. In response, travel agents are threatening to book customers into cheaper seats and onto competing U.S. air carriers if the airlines do not roll back the cap. Canada has around 5,700 agencies and 28,000 travel agents. Canadian Airlines expects to save $15 million annually and Air Canada about $25 million.

ECONOMIC POWER
            A new U.S. study indicates the immense economic power wielded by the 57 million Chinese living outside China. Overseas Chinese control economic activity which ranks only behind the GDP of Japan and the U.S. in size. They are the top investors in Southeast Asia and account for 80 per cent of foreign investment in China. In Indonesia, the four per cent of the population who are ethnic Chinese control 70 per cent of the economic activity. In Thailand, the three per cent minority controls more than 60 per cent of the economy and in the Philippines, the respective figures are four per cent and 70 per cent. There are one million ethnic Chinese in California and in Vancouver they now account for close to 20 per cent of the population. Their success is attributed to the fact that they are superb entrepreneurs.

USER PAYS
            A hospital in Willimantic, Conn. allows patients to pay off their medical bills with "sweat equity"---working in the cafeteria, organizing X-ray files, answering the phones, wheeling patients to surgery and so on.

PENNIES
            For years the Canadian one-cent coin has cost more than a penny to produce. Under the terms of the NAFTA, the Royal Canadian Mint was required to offer the contract for a new coin not only to Canadian suppliers, but also to those in the United States and Mexico.
Two U.S companies submitted the lowest bids for the contract and when they go into production on Canada Day they will reduce the cost of a penny from 1.4 cents to 0.9 cents. By significantly reducing the copper content, the Mint expects to save $3.4 million a year without affecting the 20-year life of the coin.  

RECYCLING
            The U.S. Parks Service, which must sometimes remove large, dead animals swiftly from locations such as recreational areas, has determined that nine kilograms of explosives will disperse a carcass, while obliteration takes 25 kilograms. The most important safety tip is to remove all horseshoes beforehand.

CHARITY
            Giving to U.S. charities rose more than 10 per cent to nearly $144 billion in 1995 as American generosity surged, spurred by a stock market rally, higher wages and talk in Washington of ending tax breaks which prompted people to give more. The increases resulted in 17 per cent more in donations to philanthropies that help society and the public, including research institutes. There was a 12.5 per cent increase to environment and wildlife groups, 9 per cent more to health groups and 8 per cent to educational institutions. Personal giving rose 11 per cent while corporate contributions rose about 7 per cent. 

LOSSES
            Bad cheques and shoplifting account for the bulk of the U.S. retail industry's $26 billion in yearly losses. However, it is estimated that "return fraud"--purchasing goods with the intention of temporary use--accounts for $1 billion. USA Today reports that stores want to crack down on such brazen "borrowing" tricks as returning electronic gear after a vacation, expensive clothing after party season, air conditioners after a heat wave and computers after term papers are written.

WORK
            For Canadian workers, the average length of a new job was 3.8 years in the period 1981-85, 3.4 years in 1986-90 and 3.8 years again in 1991-94. However, in 14 years the average job length declined significantly for workers over 45 and for workers in Atlantic Canada both of which had exceptionally large declines in the proportion of jobs which lasted beyond one year.

PSYCHOLOGY
            According to the New York Times, supermarket shoppers will buy more soup if the varieties are shelved out of alphabetical order. If stacked alphabetically, sales drop 6 per cent.
CORDON BLEU
            The U.S Army has developed a pound cake that is tough enough to survive a fall from an airplane, can withstand temperatures from 50 to -50 Celsius and will last for years.

OLYMPICS
            According to the Medical Post, competitors in ballroom dancing, a new sport at the Olympic Games this month, have been warned that they may have to give specimen samples for drug testing after their routines.

Saturday, June 01, 1996

JUNE 1996 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



JUNE 1996 Edition

INNOVATION
            At present, innovation is heavily concentrated in rich economies which account for 96 per cent of total world R&D spending. This reflects the fact that developed nations can afford to spend more on innovation which, in turn, boosts future income and thus finances more research. Poorer countries with a plentiful supply of less skilled labour have tended to focus on basic manufacturing copying western techniques, but this is changing. Some Asian economies are fast becoming innovators. South Korea and Taiwan already spend as much on R&D, as a proportion of their GDP, as many European economies and the results are beginning to show. Taiwan now registers more patents in the U.S. (per head of population) than Britain does.

WEB SITE
            Public and private-sector communities engaged in health, international trade and export activities now have immediate access to a service that could better their business. It's the new Web site of The International Affairs Directorate (IAD) of Health Canada. Exporters of health care products and services will be interested particularly in the services provided by the Coordinator for Health Exports Promotion and Assistance. Also on the site are links to other health-related sites, trade-related sites and a listing of international conferences on health. The address of the site is:
http://hpb1.hwc.ca/datapcb/iad/iadtitle.htm.

CEREALS
            Cereal makers are paying hefty prices for grain while facing competitive pressures to lower retail prices. The result is a profit squeeze in the more than $8 billion-a-year (US) cereal industry. Consumers may benefit, but manufacturers, especially smaller ones, are likely to feel the pinch. While cereal companies do not pay spot prices for grain which recently hit record levels, long term contracts are rising. Though grain costs are a small fraction of the overall cost of making a box of cereal-- advertising and promotion account for the largest chunk--soaring grain prices hurt profits.
Because of intense competition, U.S. cereal companies will not be able to pass on higher grain costs by raising their prices as they have in the past, in fact prices may even decline.

TRENDS
            Change is sweeping the world of sports and hobbies and few people or organizations are taking advantage of it. According to Statistics Canada, people aged 55 or more average an hour a day on sports and hobbies, while those under 55 spend half that time. From 1921 until the late 1970s, people aged 15 to 35 accounted for more than half the time spent on sports and hobbies, today their share is less than 40 per cent. In contrast, people aged 55 and older represented less than 30 percent of sports and hobby time. By 2021, this portion of society will account for over 50 per cent. This has serious implications for municipal recreation departments as older joggers, cyclists, tennis players, swimmers and volleyball players seek places to exercise.

DECISIVENESS
            Headline from the business section of a recent edition of a Baltimore newspaper: "Stocks will rise or fall, or rise then fall, or fall then rise or fall and fall."

E-MAIL
            According to BugNet, an on-line service based in Bellingham, Washington, ink-on-paper mail is a lot more reliable than E-mail. This year, the number of E-mails sent will surpass the 85 billion paper letters sent worldwide. In a head-to-head competition with the U.S. post office, BugNet sent 500 messages to E-mail addresses it had determined were good and current and 500 letters to current postal addresses through U.S. mail. It found that E-mail's failure rate was about three times higher than first class mail. Seventeen E-mail messages were returned as undeliverable as against six sent through the mail.

MOVIES
            A landmark labour agreement for the B.C. film industry will generate up to $200 million for the B.C. economy in the next year. In the past, producers considering B.C. have had to negotiate each film separately with an unpredictable outcome. Most B.C. competitors such as North Carolina, Toronto and Los Angeles either already have master agreements or costs are predictable.

ACQUISITIONS
            Foreign purchases of U.S. companies--led by Canadian and Japanese buyers seeking to expand in the U.S. retail and consumer products markets--almost doubled to $26.6 billion in the first quarter of 1996. Foreign buyers paid an average of $114 million in 233 deals. Conversely, U.S. companies spent $8.4 billion on acquiring foreign companies, an increase of about six per cent over the same period last year. Canadian companies were the most active buyers spending almost $10 billion in 65 deals. Japanese companies were second, more than doubling their spending to $4.6 billion with Britain third at $4.3 billion.

BANKING
            Canada's first aboriginal bank, which will tap into more than $5 billion in assets which flow through First Nations, will open in the summer. The bank is considered a breakthrough for the economic development of First Nations as banking and the ability to obtain loans is considered critical for self-government. Initially, the bank will deal only with businesses and band councils. Its eventual goal is to operate branches in urban centres and Indian communities across Canada.

SERVICES
            In 1994, world exports of commercial services (transport, travel, banking and insurance) rose by 8 per cent to $1.1 trillion, 26 per cent of all world exports. Meanwhile, exports of merchandise goods grew by 13 per cent, helping total world exports to increase by 12 per cent to $5.2 trillion. The U.S. is the world's biggest exporter of services, selling $178 billion worth in 1994, almost 17 per cent of the world's total. Canada's export of services was 1.7 per cent of the world's total.

MONOPOLIES
            The Government of Canada seems to believe that the oil companies are conspiring to defraud consumers through price fixing by a secret gasoline cartel and the industry is now under investigation by the Bureau of Competition Policy over complaints it is violating the Competition Act. The message: Monopolies are bad.
            Meanwhile, some Manitoba farmers have been charged by Ottawa with illegally exporting western grain into the U.S, where the demand is high and prices better than those offered by the Wheat Board. However, by law, the Canadian Wheat Board is the only one which can ship grain out of the country. Its monopoly on Western Canadian wheat, barley and oats for human consumption or export leaves farmers with few options. The message: Monopolies are good.

LABOUR
            Canadian companies are winning extended periods of labour peace as many unions agree to contracts that are longer than ever before. Figures released show the average length of agreements reached 40.3 months in the first quarter of 1996, the highest on record. That compares with an average low of 17.2 months set in the midst of the 1981-82 recession. Some recent management-labour deals are running to five and six years, particularly in the resource-based industries.

TECHNOLOGY
            New Mexico's Monastery of Christ in the Desert is on-line, when its Benedictine monks can get their phones to work. There are no electrical lines to the Monastery in the Santa Fe National Forest. The monks use cellular phones powered by solar energy.

MANITOBA
            Manitoba Telephone System plans to test a new electronic set-top device that connects a television to the global Internet via an ordinary telephone line. The appliance-like product, dubbed InBox, represents the latest branch of consumer electronics. Proponents of on-line access via TV believe consumers will flock to a device that eliminates the need to buy costly (as much as $3000) and complex personal computers in order to connect to the global World Wide Web. Sceptics question the utility of a $500 device that can't do much more than provide access to the Internet. The InBox device contains a computer processor, modem and Netscape browser software and is operated by a cordless infrared remote device. However, users will need to buy a keyboard if they wish to send E-mail messages.

MINING
            Political uncertainty in B.C. and concern about the environmental lobby, is causing many Canadian mining companies to use Santiago, Chile as a regional headquarters for expanding into other Latin American countries. Canadian companies in Chile led by major mining producers from Vancouver and Toronto, have committed to spending a total of $4.5 billion in the Andean nation since 1991. The relatively small, but lucrative Canadian mining services industry, is expected to provide $100 million this year alone in exports to Chile, or almost 15 per cent of the mining machinery market in Chile, compared with 5 per cent in 1992.

COMPETITIVENESS
            Annually, the Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development measures and compares competitiveness of 46 countries in terms of the mechanisms that help create wealth. They use 230 criteria covering economic strength, technology, financial services, international trade, government policies, management, infrastructure and educational skills. In the latest study, the United States leads the world, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. Canada was ranked 12th, after New Zealand and before Chile. Britain and France were 19th and 20th.

CHINA
            While China still captivates Canadian businesses, the Conference Board of Canada found that it has yet to prove profitable for many. A recent survey showed that less than half of Canadian companies responding that invested in China in the last five years have made money on their investments. Of twenty businesses, just eight, or 40 per cent, said they made a profit. Twelve said their investments were not profitable and three said their investments were "highly unprofitable."

THE WEST
            In March and April, for the first time in Canadian history, there were more jobs in the provinces west of Ontario than there were in the provinces to its east. In the past six years, 345,000, or 87 per cent of the net gain of 443,000 new jobs created in Canada were created in the two western provinces. This is remarkable considering that British Columbia and Alberta are home to only 22 per cent of the Canadian population. Ontario and Quebec, containing 62 per cent of Canadians, created only 14 per cent of new jobs. The Maritime provinces had fewer jobs in April than they did six years ago.

PART-TIME WORK
            Two thirds of part-time workers are working shorter hours because that's what they want. They're going to school, have personal or family reasons or they don't want to devote their entire lives to paid work. Part-time work is 30 hours a week or less. Last year, more than 600,000 people worked part- time because of school, 200,000 gave family or personal reasons and 600,000 gave other reasons for not wanting full-time work and 800,000 said they could only find part time work. Part-time workers in Canada represented 16.4 per cent of the employed in 1995, down from 17.3 per cent in 1993.

PIGEONS
            More than half the pigeons in London's Trafalgar Square have been rustled by two men. Police suspect that the birds, which are plump from eating seed and leftover junk food all day, are being sold to restaurants.

PSYCHOLOGY
            A U.S. paint company that changed the name of its "off-white" hue to "antique-silk" more than doubled sales of the colour.