Friday, December 01, 1995

DECEMBER 1995 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



DECEMBER 1995 Edition

EXPORT DATA
            The Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) has created a directory of electronically available international business data sources to help Canadian firms seeking to obtain business data on foreign markets. Persons can now obtain a wealth of information that is useful in developing an export plan or implementing an export strategy. The directory can be accessed through menu M22 of the InfoCentre BBS from which it can be downloaded. To access the InfoCentre BBS, dial (613) 994-1581 from your computer modem, or 1-800-628-1581 (line parameters set at 8-N-1, baud speed up to 14,400, terminal emulation set for ANSI/ASCII standards). The directory is organized by geographic region--Canada, United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific.

CHINA
            China has suddenly exploded into a global export power. It now produces half the world's toys and two-thirds of its shoes. Most of the world's bicycles, lamps, power tools and sweaters also come from China. More worrisome to export giants like Japan and the United States, China's export surge is now being powered by coveted, high-tech products. Exports of machinery and electronics--from alarm clocks to video camcorders--have jumped 60 per cent so far this year Chinese statistics show, becoming its top export category for the first time. If China's current trade trajectory holds, it will export $38 billion more than it imports from the U.S. Next year, U.S. officials estimate the surplus could reach $50 billion putting it close to Japan whose bilateral trade advantage with the U.S. is $66 billion.

LICENSING
            The Vatican Library has given its blessing to a lucrative licensing project that could put its official seal on everything from luggage to bed linens. You can already buy Vatican costume jewellery and will probably soon find Vatican watches, greeting cards and T-shirts at the mall. Over the first five years, licensing revenue is projected to average about $5 million (U.S.) annually jumping to $10 to $20 million annually after that. When Pope John Paul II visited Denver in 1993, roughly $400 million of Pope-related material was sold in a 30-day period. The Vatican joins Queen Elizabeth II who approved the sale of goods under the House of Windsor name including furniture and Scottish throw rugs. The Mormon church has also begun expanding its licensing activities.

RESTAURANTS
            An analysis of the financial results of 1,151 restaurants by Dun & Bradstreet Canada has pinpointed the restaurant industry as the most unstable field of all the businesses it studies, with low profit margins and high failure rates. The average restaurant had an after-tax return on sales of just 2.1 per cent last year, while return on assets was a dismal 4.77 per cent. Costs of food and beverages increased to 34.9 per cent of total sales in 1994, up from 32.7 per cent in 1992 while other operating expenses, such as salaries and rents, accounted for 55.2 per cent of sales in 1994, up from 53.4 per cent. Introducing the GST in 1991 caused sales to drop 10 per cent that year alone and they have never recovered to prior levels. Restaurants are most stable in Quebec and the Maritimes and least stable in Ontario. The average restaurant faces a 3.66 per cent risk it will close in the next six months and business failures are surprisingly high in the eighth and ninth years of operations.

GLOBAL ECONOMY
            According to the World Trade Organization, world trade in goods, spurred by the integration of the global economy, is expected to grow 8 per cent in volume in 1995. The WTO says that the strong global trade figures indicate protectionism is losing out to liberalization. Though the 8 per cent figure is down from the 9.5 per cent increase in 1994, it will still keep trade expansion at nearly three times that of overall world economic growth which is projected to be 3 per cent. In 1994, the value of world merchandise trade rose to $4.09 trillion.

EUROCOWS
            As far as European Community cows are concerned, 1996 will not be a leap year. Rather than recalculate production formulas based on 365 days, Brussels bureaucrats have decided that any milk the animals produce on February 29th will be credited to the two months before or after that date.

RETAIL
            Zellers Inc., with more than 300 stores, used to be the undisputed king of discount retailing in Canada. For more than a year now, Zellers and Wal-Mart Canada, with its 129 Canadian stores, have been trading punches with one retailer dropping its prices only to be matched or outdone by the other. While the consumer has benefitted, the impact on both companies' earnings is noticeable. Wal-Mart absorbed a loss last year and in the first quarter of 1995 while Zellers operating profits have been sliding. Zellers is about to open its biggest store yet, about 147,000 square feet, close to a Wal-Mart store in Montreal. The store will serve as a laboratory of sorts as it tests various strategies for boosting sales across its entire chain. Wal-Mart claims to have boosted its share of the discount market to 40 per cent from the 22 per cent when it bought the Woolco chain.

NAFTA
            The Canadian government has acknowledged for the first time that it won't achieve a comprehensive deal with the U.S. and Mexico by year-end on getting rid of arbitrary trade laws within the North American free-trade agreement. Instead, the partners are expected to issue an interim report that will include recommendations for some technical and administrative changes to anti-dumping and countervailing duty rules. The Canadian government has long argued that absence of clear rules and arbitrary U.S. trade remedy measures are to blame for a deluge of cross-border disputes in recent years, including those involving steel and softwood lumber.

COMMUNICATIONS
            Telephone users in Regina, Saskatchewan, can now call a business by dialling a three-digit code and speaking the company's name into a computer. Sask'Tel, is the first phone company in North America to begin testing the new application of voice-recognition developed by Bell-Northern, a division of Northern Telecom. After the first month of the trial, the 325 businesses that have agreed to participate will pay a monthly fee to have their name stored on the computerized system which has an almost limitless vocabulary and does not have to be trained to recognize speakers. If successful, the system will go into service across the country.

COMPETITION
            The inefficiency of Japan's offices contrasts sharply with the legendary productivity of its factories. Last year, only 25 per cent of white-collar workers had personal computers. When Compaq and Dell Computers invaded Japan's market three years ago with personal computers selling at half the price of Japanese products, Japan's computer makers braced for declining market share and falling profits. But instead of killing Japan's PC market, the U.S. invasion has liberated it. Japanese manufacturers have become fierce competitors, cutting prices dramatically, and the results have been a boom in sales for both Japanese and U.S. manufacturers with sales climbing by a third in 1994. Sales in 1995 are expected to jump by 50 per cent. Leading the U.S. companies was Apple Computer Inc. which has now become the No 2 personal computer vendor behind NEC Corp. with a 15 per cent market share.

EDUCATION
            Officials at some of Canada's major banks are discussing a loyalty credit card that would allow users to put a percentage of their purchases into a fund for their children's post secondary education. The Student Co-operative Canada Project--Scoop for short--would award card users points for up to five per cent of purchases from designated companies.. The points would be transferable to a post-secondary education savings plan that would be managed by mutual funds for individual students. The card proposal is being designed to include accumulating points for debit card purchases and even cash purchases. It would also allow card users to convert points from Air Miles and other existing loyalty programs.

BIOTECHNOLOGY
            According to Ernst & Young, Canadian biotechnology companies are continuing to use strategic alliances with bigger, better capitalized partners to replace other sources of capital. Biotechnology product sales rose to $9.3 billion (U.S.) as of June 1995, an 18 per cent rise over the previous year. Market capitalization of companies in this business rose 27 per cent to $52 billion. The Canadian industry now has about 200 biotech companies and about 30 publicly listed biotech companies. They are also capitalizing on the need of large pharmaceutical companies to buy research from outside sources to attract funds.

WORK
            By overwhelming majorities, Canadian and U.S. employees say they are fulfilled by their work, but many express dissatisfaction with their pay, opportunities to advance and employers' concern for their needs. Canadian employees (77 per cent), more so than Americans (72 per cent) say their job "provides a sense of personal accomplishment" even though fewer Canadians (41 per cent) than Americans (45 per cent) believe they have a chance to advance. Employees of both countries say they can "have a direct impact" in helping their firms succeed through their day-to-day-efforts, including "high-quality" customer service.

MEXICO
            Mexican exports to Canada increased 24 per cent in the first eight months of the year, while imports from Canada fell 8.5 per cent. Their exports have been helped by a weaker peso which was devalued last December and has fallen 54 per cent against the U.S. dollar in the past 11 months. This has also put a brake on Mexican imports but those from Canada have fallen at a lower rate than those from Japan and Europe. 51.8 per cent of Mexican exports to Canada were consumer goods, 31 per cent were raw materials and 10.7 per cent capital goods.

GENERIC DRUGS
            According to a study by IMS Canada, growth in sales of generic drugs outpaced that of brand-name pharmaceuticals by more than five times in the 12 months ended September 1995. Generic drug producers saw their sales rise 13.8 per cent compared to a 2.7 increase reported by brand-name manufacturers. Generic drugs now represent 14 per cent of retail drug store sales, up from 11 per cent in 1991 and it is projected that this figure will reach 16 per cent of retail sales by the year 2000.

LOANS
            Loans of up to $250,000 are to be made available to asset-poor, idea-rich, knowledge-based businesses in Western Canada under a $25 million program announced by the federal government and its Business Development Bank of Canada. One appealing feature is that repayments of both principal and interest can be deferred for up to three years. The bank will charge a base interest rate plus a royalty on a borrower's sales. Major banks have traditionally turned down knowledge-based businesses, even when they have signed contracts in hand, because they don't have buildings, machinery or inventory to assign as security on loans.

INCENTIVES
            "Stop smoking for three years and save enough money to buy an ox."--The slogan of China's new anti-smoking campaign.

DUST TO DUST
            A devotee of the Real Betis soccer team in Spain who died last year asked his son to take his ashes to every game. The son went one better by renewing his father's club membership entitling the ashes to a seat. Security officials balked when he carried the ashes in a glass jar which they considered to be a dangerous object. So now he takes his father in a one-litre milk carton.