Thursday, February 01, 1996

FEBRUARY 1996 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



FEBRUARY 1996 Edition

ISRAEL
            Negotiators have reached a tentative agreement on a free-trade deal between Canada and Israel. The deal, which must be reviewed by both governments, would eliminate tariffs on all manufactured goods and  many agricultural and fish products. The agreement will enable Canadian companies pursuing business opportunities in Israel to compete on an equal footing with international competitors. Israel has such agreements already with the U.S. and the European Union.

COFFEE
            Americans are drinking half as much coffee as in the early 1960s. It has been estimated that U.S. per capita consumption fell 10 per cent last year after an 8 per cent decline in 1994. Americans drank an average of 1.7 cups of coffee a day last winter against an average of more than three cups in the early 1960s. Industry watchers link the downturn to dramatic fluctuations in retail prices after two bad frosts in Brazil over an 18 month period. Others cite changes in taste preferences towards colder and sweeter drinks. One sector that has bucked the trend is the specialty coffee bar. There were about 200 coffee bars in 1989 and more than 10,000 in 1995.

CROSS-BORDER SHOPPING
            According to Statistics Canada, Canadians making shopping trips to the U.S. fell 2.8 per cent in November from October continuing a three year trend as the Canadian dollar lost value against its U.S. counterpart. About 2.926 million Canadians made same-day trips in November, down from 3.01 in October.

TECHNOLOGY VISITS PROGRAM
            This innovative program is run by the Canadian Manufacturers' Association and the National Research Council. Manufacturing executives can take advantage of this government-industry program which allows them to visit other plants and exchange information. The aim of the Technology Visits is to demonstrate new technology and production methods at work in a real plant and allow executives to gain insight on how they can improve and enhance their own operations. In the last 18 months, more than 1800 executives have toured plants across Canada. About 50 visits a year are conducted. More information may be obtained in B.C. from: Geoff Grover at 685-8131 or nationally from: John Fenwick at 1-800-798-0201, Ext 294.

WORTH
            If employees were aware of the day-to-day worth of doing their jobs, they would feel more motivated to help their companies succeed, according to a U.S. study by Ernst & Young. Almost 60 per cent of workers and 77 per cent of managers in a poll of 1,000 large companies said they would work harder if they knew how their jobs help the company make money. Only 15 per cent of workers surveyed knew how much it cost either to make a product or to provide a service for their company. A growing number of companies are practising "open book management" in which they give financial information to employees.

SHUTDOWN
            According to the Financial Post, the three week U.S. government shutdown has cost American taxpayers US$400 million in penalties and lost revenues. This was made up of penalties the government was forced to pay to hundreds of independent contractors and revenues lost from park fees and other services which were shut down. The total $1.4 billion tab was accumulated during a six day period in November that idled about 800,000 workers--and cost $700 million--and a second two-week hiatus for 260,000 that ran up another $700 million. Ironically, the shutdown delayed plans to lay off several thousand workers as part of a 10 per cent reduction in the federal payroll which have now been delayed until February.

AUTOMATION
            It stocks shelves, fills prescriptions and even bills patients automatically. The "Pharmacy Robot"--a new, high-tech computer system that can stock and retrieve drugs flawlessly in record time is finding its way into U.S. hospitals. Twenty-five facilities have already installed it and others are jumping at the chance. The system was developed around 1990 to ensure accuracy and reduce the possibility of human error. Out of 30 million prescriptions the robots have filled so far, there have been zero errors.

AUTOS
            Despite a slowdown in the North American automobile market, the Canadian auto industry built a record 2.38 million vehicles in 1995, a 4.2 per cent increase over the 2.28 million built in 1994. General Motors led the pack, up 25 per cent to 907,833 thanks largely to strong production of the Lumina and Monte Carlo. Chrysler was No 2, down 23 per cent to 538,097, due to an eight-week shutdown. Ford was third, up 8 per cent producing 533,433 cars and light trucks. Honda produced 106,133 Civics and Toyota, 90,492 Corollas. CAMI Automotive, a joint venture between GM Canada and Suzuki, saw production up 15 per cent to 196,630 vehicles.

TECHNOLOGY
            In 1991 a farmer cut a fibre-optic cable when burying a dead cow. He closed four of the Federal Aviation Administration's 30 main air-traffic control centres for over five hours. A year earlier, a bug in some AT&T software brought the company's long distance network to a halt for nine hours. When the Defence Department's cyber-security team attacked 3,000 of the Pentagon's own computers, only 5 per cent of the people operating the target systems detected the intrusion.

COLDS
            The cold remedy-market was worth $724 million in Canada in 1995. (Headache remedies $210 million, cold and sinus remedies $257 million, antihistamines $135 million, non-prescription cough syrups $80 million, nasal decongestants $16 million and throat lozenges $26 million). This market has remained stagnant over the past few years as recession-weary consumers reach more for cheaper private label products such as the Life label at Shoppers Drug Mart which have swallowed at least 35 per cent of the market. A U.S. Food and Drug Administration study of over-the-counter cold medications reported that chicken soup was "as good as anything else in relieving the symptoms of colds."

CHILE
            Chile's entry into the NAFTA is frozen because the U.S. President lacks "fast-track' approval from Congress to negotiate an agreement. However, Canada and Chile have agreed to pursue an interim bilateral free-trade agreement without waiting for participation from Washington. This could give Canadian companies the jump over U.S. competitors in the fast-growing Chilean market. Canadian exports to Chile in the first nine months of 1995 were $265 million and imports were worth $233 million. Planned and current Canadian investment in Chile totals $7 billion in mining, telecommunications and other sectors.

JOBS
            Human Resources Canada says the place to look for work in B.C. in 1996 is in community, business and personal services which are forecast to add 21,000 jobs this year, for a total of 716,000. Another job-growth area is vaguely called "other-manufacturing' which involves primarily the high-tech sector which is projected to gain 3,000 jobs for a total of 125,000. Forestry, wood products and paper, and allied industries will remain relatively constant with about 105,000 jobs. Public administration which took a big drop in 1995 will shrink again to about 102,000 jobs. The retail and wholesale trade will remain flat at about 325,000 jobs.

WHEAT
            Despite a temporary transportation shutdown last year, Canadian wheat exports to China soared to 5.3 million tonnes, the highest level in three years. This represents an increase of 1.4 million tonnes, or more than 35 per cent, over 1994 levels. Canadian shipments now account for 40 per cent of all wheat imported by China, making the Chinese the largest single foreign buyer of Canadian wheat.
Severe drought and widespread flooding in different parts of China affected 38 per cent of the country's farmland last year. Despite this, Chinese authorities reported a 1995 grain harvest of 455 million tonnes, up 10 million from the previous year

LUMBER
            The bad news is that due to a large unsold inventory, residential construction had its worst year in three decades with approximately 111,000 housing starts. This is causing everybody from lumber suppliers to kitchen cabinet makers to review what to do with their excess capacity. The good news is that some new export markets such as Florida and Texas are being developed by some suppliers. Also, the Japanese lumber market has made a sharp turnaround--prices are up 5 to 10 per cent from late 1995 having dropped 20 to 30 per cent earlier in the year which means that B.C. coastal mills can refocus their attention on that market.

CHARITY
            Fewer Canadians gave to charity in 1994 but those that did gave more. A total of 5.3 million tax filers reported donations to charity, a figure that has been declining since the mid-eighties. But the total amount of money given increased to $3.39 billion, $40.4 million more than in 1993 and up 9 per cent  over 1991. Newfoundlanders, who have the lowest median income at $27,000, had the highest median donation at $250. Nationally, the median donation was $150 on a median income of $34,100. British Columbians and Albertans were the second lowest givers to charity after Quebec. Donors over age 65 gave an average $890, 40 per cent higher than the Canadian average.

McGROWTH    
            McDonald's Corp. ended 1995 with record international growth having opened 1,300 restaurants outside the U.S. with 60,000 new jobs. 751 non-US outlets were opened in 1994. 20 per cent of the openings were in countries McDonald's were not even in five years ago. 10 more countries were added in 1995 including Qatar, Honduras and St. Maarten. The others are Estonia, Romania, Malta, Colombia, Jamaica, Slovakia and South Africa. McDonald's now has more than 17,400 restaurants in 89 countries worldwide.

MOVIES
            Last month we reported that Disney is opening two studios in Canada. A Toronto production company has now announced that it will build a $200 million state-of-the-art feature film studio in Charlotte, N.C. largely because the federal government dithered over the site it really wanted, on an armed forces base in Toronto which will close this summer. Image Factory Entertainment is planning to build a 162,000 square-metre studio with 22 sound stages, four of them the world's biggest and the studio will employ 3,000 people. It is estimated that the annual value of production at the studio will be $1.5 billion which exceeds the total film and television production revenue in Canada. The Charlotte facility will surpass Toronto as the third-largest film and TV production centre in North America.

BABY WATCHERS
            Two mothers in San Francisco have created what's believed to be the world's first video for infants, reports The Examiner. "What do babies most like to watch on TV? Other babies, of course." Babymugs features a background of upbeat music and 85 infants doing such varied things as drooling, lying inert, staring at the screen and falling out of the picture. Local stores are reportedly selling out of copies.

CORDON BLEU?
* Titles of three new cookbooks: Butterflies in My Stomach, Unmentionable Cuisine and Entertaining with Insects.

TRIVIA
*   In 1995, the most popular colour in Canada and the U.S. for most new cars and trucks was white. Dark green ranked No.1 among sport and compact cars.
*   In 6,000 BC, at the end of the New Stone Age, the population of the world was roughly equal to the present-day population of Canada.