Saturday, January 01, 2000

January 2000 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting

January 2000 Edition

 CHINA

Despite an agreement reached between China and the U.S. on a bilateral market access package, there remain obstacles to overcome before China's accession to the World Trade Organization is assured. A major one is the requirement for China to conclude bilateral deals with an additional 27 WTO members, including the EU, Canada, Brazil, India, and Switzerland. The EU is considered the most critical of China's accession. The U.S.-China deal must also be approved by the U.S. Congress, which could prove a major battle. Labour groups promised to fight hard against the deal that they said would prove disastrous for American workers.

DIRECT SALES

Canadians buy more at the store than from someone who comes to the door, but these sales are still significant. $3.4 billion worth of purchases were made from people who sell directly to the consumer in 1997 (up by 0.3 per cent from 1996). Among the most popular methods of personal sales were demonstrations at home parties (like Tupperware) which saw sales increase by over three per cent in 1997. Sales direct from manufacturers were down as were mail and telephone sales. Cosmetics posted sales increases of six percent and newspapers were the best direct sellers with 15 per cent of 1997 total direct sales.

SHIPS

The annual cost of piracy of the world's oceans is $1 billion (U.S.), according to the London-based International Maritime Bureau. A private security company has secretly installed satellite tracked "Magic boxes" on some large vessels. These devices alert owners when a ship goes off course, which means it may have been hijacked.

BIOTECH

Japan has approved seven new varieties of genetically modified (GM) crops as safe for human consumption, ignoring demands by a consumer lobby that it follow the European Union and slap a moratorium on the import of new GM strains. The ministry of health and welfare said it was following the recommendations of an 18-strong advisory committee of academics, consumer organisations, food standard agencies and medical associations. The decision means that Japanese companies can now import and sell 29 GM varieties of seven crops -- corn, soybeans, rapeseed, potatoes, cotton, tomatoes and sugar beet.

TOYS

Two leading British supermarket chains have urged toy manufacturers to make dolls more full-figured to help cut eating disorders among children. The chains contacted the makers of Barbie and Steffi dolls, asking them to reflect the form of the average woman and make the dolls in more realistic proportions. They acted after shoppers complained that the wafer-thin dolls were fuelling an increase in anorexia and bulimia sufferers.

FOOD

Roughly half of all the world's food never actually reaches anyone's mouth according to the recently published Fearing Food. In countries with relatively low levels of food packaging, such as India, the amount of food wastage reaches 70 per cent: in the U.S., with its obsession with packaging food thoroughly, the level of wastage is just 17 per cent.

ECONOMY

Industrial economies are recovering much better than expected from the effects of the Asian, Russian and Brazil crisis and are looking forward to growth of almost 3 percent in 2000, according to the OECD. In its first forecast for 2001, the OECD forecasts growth in the 29 industrial countries of 2.6 per cent.The main reason for the upward revision in growth is the unexpected momentum of the U.S. economy. Also, there has been an unexpectedly sharp fall in EU unemployment levels, now expected to drop to 8.8 per cent in 2000 and 8.4 per cent in 2001

OCEAN TECHNOLOGY

This industry offers products and services for use in marine environments. Sectors include environmental, defence, manufacturing and information technology. In 1998, Industry Canada estimates there were more than 500 ocean technology companies employing between 7,500 and 12,000 people. Revenue is estimated to be around C$1-billion.

COOL

Air conditioning is found in 29 per cent of Canadian households, up from 12 per cent in 1975. Three quarters of U.S. households use air conditioners.

SHOPPING CARTS

In 1999, the six leading U.S. discount chains, led by Wal-Mart, have chalked up a sales increases of 5 per cent or more for stores open at least one year. And each of those chains offers customers a shopping cart. Meanwhile the six leading department stores, led by Sears Roebuck, have had sales increases of less than 5 per cent per store. The average shopper with a cart buys 7.2 items, while the customer without a cart buys 6.1 items. Experts claim that a cart will double the sales of bulky items. Sears and Montgomery Ward are now testing small carts.

TRENDS

Tesco, the number one food retailer in the U.K., is expanding its online shopping service beyond groceries. In December it put its Christmas catalog on its Web site for the first time and added videos and compact discs. Early in 2000, it will launch an online "Baby Club" linking special offers and children's retailing with articles on health and advice, in addition to selling books and offering online financial services. The company is also exploring the possibility of selling large household appliances (washers, dryers, refrigerators), computers, travel packages and tickets via its Web site.

WASTE

According to Friends of the Earth, Canada recycles 29 per cent of its waste. By comparison, Swiss households recycle 52 per cent of their waste and Scottish households 5 per cent.

FAST FOOD

Last year, for the second year running, French fries were the most ordered item in Canadian restaurants and were found in one in four orders. Other favourites: Unsweetened baked goods such as bagels and croissants were second (ranked fourth in 1997); Third, Hamburgers, up from fifth place; Fourth, Salads, slipped from second place and Fifth, Pizza, third in 1997.

PLASTIC

Plastic exports to the U.S. almost doubled between 1994 and 1998, reaching C$3.7 billion. Between 1994 and 1998, Canada's share of U.S. plastic imports has increased by six per cent, representing more than 28 per cent of the U.S. market.

STORES

Last year, there were 127,000 grocery stores in the U.S. with total grocery sales of $426-billion. The total number of supermarkets, (over $2 million in sales) was 29,900. Total supermarket sales was $323-billion and there were 1.9 million supermarket employees.

PIRACY

Officials in the U.S. are being urged to start publishing an annual report identifying and ranking the countries with the best and the worst intellectual property enforcement records around the world in an effort to improve U.S. trade performance. The most recent report of the Business Software Alliance points out that in 25 nations, more than 75 percent of all software used in those countries has been pirated. Most of the victims are U.S. companies.

OPTIMISM

A national survey by the 100,000-member Canadian Federation of Independent Business found that small and medium sized business owners are confident heading into 2000 and expect to create more full-time jobs. Entrepreneurs in Alberta and Ontario are the most optimistic, but most of those surveyed expect a stronger performance by their firms. Manufacturers, who have benefited from a booming U.S. economy, expressed the highest levels of confidence for 2000 with 61 per cent expecting stronger growth.

CORRUPTION

Transparency International, the Berlin-based organization devoted to curbing world corruption, has released its fifth annual "Corruption Perceptions Index" (CPI) survey of corruption levels in 99 countries, based on the perceptions of business people, risk analysts and the general public. The survey showed that in 1999, Denmark heads the CPI rankings being essentially a corruption-free country. Finland was second, followed by New Zealand, Sweden, and Canada. The United States ranked 18th followed by Chile and Israel.

DEMOCRACIES

When it comes to U.S. trade and investment dollars, democratic countries in the developing world are losing ground to more authoritarian countries, according to a report released recently by the New Economy Information Service. The report reveals that democratic countries' market share of developing country exports to the U.S. (excluding oil) fell from 53.4 percent in 1989 to 34.9 percent in 1998. According to the NEIS, if the trend continues, foreign purchasing and investment decisions by U.S. corporations may inadvertently undermine the chances for survival of fragile democracies.

SAVINGS

For the first time in seven years, fewer Canadians contributed to a registered retirement savings plan, and the amount of their contributions declined as well. About 6,122,000 taxfilers contributed to an RRSP during the 1998 tax year, down a slight 0.6% from the previous year. They contributed $26.6 billion, down 3.8% from the record $27.7 billion total in 1997. These declines occurred despite a 4.6% increase in employment income in 1997, as well as a 2.4% increase in recipients of employment income.

TRADE

The European Union and Mexico have reached a deal that will end all tariffs on their bilateral trade in industrial goods by 2007. EU officials say the deal is designed to help the EU regain its place in the Mexican market, where its share of imports has fallen to 5 per cent from about 20 per cent in 1994, when the North American free-trade agreement took effect and opened Mexico up to the U.S. and Canadian imports. NAFTA rules of origin will restrict goods from moving duty-free from Mexico into the U.S. and Canada.

IRELAND

This country is building on foundations poured 25 years ago when it targeted software development as a way to transfer its agrarian economy into a commercial one. As a result, Ireland is now the world's second-largest software exporter behind the U.S.. It has also had the fastest growing economy in the OECD for the past four years. Now, Ireland wants to make sure it doesn't miss out on the electronic revolution and has broken ground on a national digital business park for major international high-tech businesses.

MARKETS

Research by The Phillips Group In London predicts that the Internet user base in the Asia-Pacific region will increase from 44 million at the beginning of 2000 to at least 228 million by the close of 2005. Indications show that the potential Asia-Pacific Internet market for 2006 could comprise in excess of 370 million users -- an increase of 750% from the figures predicted for the end of 1999. Within the region, China is expected to take over Japan's present number one spot, in terms of Internet user base growth rate, by late 2004.

QUOTE

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Ken Olsen, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. in 1977.

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