Wednesday, January 01, 1997

JANUARY 1997 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting

JANUARY 1997 Edition

MOST PROFITABLE
            Among larger Canadian enterprises, the most profitable in 1995 were firms engaged in computer manufacturing, electronic computing and peripheral equipment servicing, and the provision of computer programming and systems analysis services. The median rate of return was 22.4%. They were followed closely by chemical fertilizer (excluding potash) and explosives manufacturers (22.3%) and industrial inorganic chemicals manufacturers (18.5%). Among smaller firms, incorporated offices of physicians, surgeons and dentists were the most profitable with a median rate of return of 25.9%. Next were sawmills and manufacturers of planing mill products with a median return of 17.4%.

LEAST PROFITABLE
            The least profitable of the larger firms included advertising agencies, contractors doing building interior and exterior structural work, and industrial and heavy engineering general contractors. The least profitable small enterprises included paper and paper products wholesalers and the paint and varnish manufacturers.

LIBRARIES
            It was once forecast that television would destroy reading in Canada, but it hasn't happened. In 1968, viewers had about 2,000 channel-hours a week to watch. Today, close to 8,000 channel-hours are broadcast each week in the larger Canadian cities. So what has happened to libraries? In 1952, library circulation across the country totalled about 25 million items borrowed. By 1974 it was more than 100 million. By 1993 it was around 200 million items, though some of the circulation was video and audio tapes. Library circulation has managed to grow about 4 per cent a year over the past forty years.

MUSIC
            Everywhere you care to look, classical music is losing its audience. While the Three Tenors will soon earn a million and a half U.S. dollars a night each in Vancouver and Toronto, such events are unusual. London's Royal Festival Hall and the Barbican play on average to half capacity and tickets for the Salzburg Festival or Amsterdam's Concertgebouw are readily available after being sold out for generations. The manager of one of America's top orchestras estimates that within the next ten years an industry of over 250 professional orchestras will shrink to barely a dozen. In Britain, it is predicted that only six of its 14 symphony orchestras will last the century.

NEWSPAPERS
            Canadians continue to buy fewer newspapers with the industry reporting a 2.2 per cent drop in circulation in 1996. The Canadian Newspaper Association, representing the country's 106 daily papers, says circulation has been hurt by rising single-copy and subscription prices as well as publishers intentionally reducing the area in which they deliver their papers. Canadian papers sold an average of 5.2 million copies a day in 1996: it was 5.3 million in 1995. The decline marks six consecutive years of lower circulation.

COMPARATIVE PRICES
            Prices for electronic products have fallen considerably over time. Here is a sample.
Cell phones:
1985                                                     $2,500
1996                                                     $200
Microwave Ovens
1972                                                     $1,000
1996                                                     $229
CD Player
1983                                                     $800
1996                                                     $199
VCR
1976                                                     $1,000
1996                                                     $239
Sony Walkman
1979                                                     $230
1996                                                     $89
Digital Watch
1976                                                     $350
1996                                                     $40

PREFABRICATED HOUSES
            Canadian companies recently brought home $195 million in contracts to supply prefabricated housing to the Japanese market. Canada cornered 46 per cent of this market last year well ahead of the second place United States with only 29 per cent. The houses are constructed in sections, predominantly of four by four wood frames, insulated and panelled and shipped out in containers with fixtures and fittings to be erected on site. The market has been notoriously difficult for many Western companies to penetrate. Japan has traditionally protected its own producers with barriers to imports but government and industry are now removing many of these barriers and imported goods are becoming popular. There's even status to owning a Canadian home, which can be supplied with furniture, carpets and drapes.

PRICE WAR
            After operating a little-noticed but legalized price cartel for many years, the world's ocean shipping lines have started rebelling against one another dropping rates for the first time in a decade. In the U.S. alone, this has already affected cargo fees on more than $450 billion in consumer goods. Over the next three years, 650 new vessels are expected to come on line and the rates are starting to reflect supply and demand. Until now, many of the major shipping companies have held rate conferences, sometimes weekly, to decide fee schedules on thousands of consumer goods categories by weight and size. The cartels control rates on as much as 60 per cent of the world's containerized ocean cargo.

COMPETITION
            According to a London Business School survey of 300 companies, too many facing competitive threat do little to defend themselves until it is too late. It was found that the biggest determinant of success was a rapid response with a targeted strategy. The report points to significant market reversals that have occurred when companies were overtaken by upstarts. Hertz Corp, for example, was once the biggest car rental company in the U.S., but it has been surpassed by Enterprise-Rent-A-Car. Rather than focusing on traditional rentals at airports, Enterprise came into the market by working with insurance companies to provide temporary replacement vehicles when a car was stolen or damaged.

BAGS
            Some U.S retailers stocked up on extra-large shopping bags for Christmas in the hopes that people would buy gifts until they were full. A New Jersey maker of plastic shopping bags states that sales of big bags were up 11 per cent from last year.

STUDY
            An Angus Reid poll shows the majority of working Canadians are also students with business and computer courses at the top of their popularity lists. Sixty-two per cent of employees questioned said they had taken at least one adult education course in the past year. Nearly a fifth reported three or more courses on top of work. But only 57 per cent reported their employers were paying for courses, usually for studies related to their current jobs. Eighteen per cent said they were taking the courses to develop skills for a new career.      In all categories, women were more likely to be studying than men.

COSTS
            A survey of senior information technology managers shows that most companies realize they spend too much on computer hardware and software but few are doing anything about it. Thirty of 47 North American executives interviewed said their company was highly committed to "asset management"--jargon for cutting costs of computer administration. Only seven executives said their organizations were halfway through completing such a program and 18 said they had just started. For companies, the stakes are high: a single desktop computer can cost more than $38,000 (U.S.) over five years after maintenance expenses and staff time are taken into account.
BIODIESEL
            This is fuel for trucks and buses made from converted restaurant grease. One potential disadvantage is that the vehicle seems to be pulling away in a cloud of French fries.

RETAIL
            A report by the Dominion Bond Rating Service Ltd. suggests that profits will remain weak among retailers in Canada until a shakedown shrinks their numbers. The combination of steeper competition--including the flood of U.S. retailers in past years--and sluggish consumer spending has led to severe price discounting. As a result, operating margins have dropped to "unsustainable low levels." Among the challenges facing retailers, the DBRS report points to: too many retailers in similar formats, like clothing: high consumer debt levels: competition from giant U.S. retailers, such as Home Depot and Wal-Mart: distribution inefficiencies and poor customer service.

DIET
            Canadians have included more fruit, vegetables and fish in their diet over the past two decades, likely the result of concerns over health and lifestyle and demand for various ethnic foods. In 1995, each Canadian ate an average of 128 kilograms of fruit, mostly fresh, compared with 97 kilograms in 1975. Per capita consumption of apples, Canada's major fruit crop, was 14 kilograms in 1995 compared with 12 kilograms two decades earlier. Consumers have also been turning to alternate tropical fruit such as kiwi, guavas, mangoes and papayas. Vegetable consumption has increased to 172 kilograms compared to 150 kilograms twenty years ago. Consumption of fish is now eight kilograms per person, mainly due to the demand for alternate sources of
low-fat protein and the diet preferences of a growing Asian population.

EDUCATION
            Full-time university enrolment increased in 1996 reaching a new record. Last fall, 576,900 full-time students enroled at Canadian universities. Undergraduate students rose to 501,300 while there were 75,600 full-time graduate students. Part-time enrolment fell for the fourth straight year. In 1996, part-time registrations dropped 8 per cent to 251,300. The population base from which most university students are drawn, the 18 to 24 age group, has decreased after peaking in the early 1980s.

HARDWARE MANUFACTURERS
            Canada's information technology sector recorded total gross output of almost $64 billion in 1995, a 65.4% increase from 1990. Growth was concentrated most heavily in software and services, whose revenues expanded by 114%, compared with an 84% increase for hardware manufacturers. Shipments by the computer and business equipment industry were the fastest growing industry segment, rising 146.0% to $7.9 billion. In contrast to the growth in output, employment in the information technology sector has weakened. It peaked at about 316,500 in 1990, but due to the recession and corporate downsizing, fell to a low of 295,000 in 1994. Employment recovered somewhat in 1995, rising 4.7% to 308,800.

VOICE-MAIL
            Some of them don't like certain voices. To a voice-mail system, some voices sound like the tones made by pushing buttons on the keypad, usually the pound key. The system assumes it has been given a command and moves on to the next step, cutting off or erasing the message. It's not just whiny, high-pitched voices that can be a problem. Weak ones may not generate enough force to be heard. The system assumes there's no input and ends the session.

HONOUR
            Last year, Barbara Bush was named "First Lady of the Century" by Outlaw Biker magazine.

TRAVEL ADVISORY
            A newspaper in Calcutta has offered these survival tips when encountering a wandering elephant. Never stand in its path and, whatever you do, avoid eye contact.