Wednesday, November 01, 1995

NOVEMBER 1995 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



NOVEMBER 1995 Edition

TRANSPORTATION
            Intense pricing pressure, chronic excess capacity and weak shipper demand are all contributing to problems for U.S. trucking companies. The average truckload carrier--which typically moves shipments of more than 10,000 pounds--is expected to show a 28 per cent decline in earning for the third quarter of 1995. The average less-than-truckload, or LTL, carrier--which hauls loads of less than 10,000 pounds--is expected to post a 40 per cent decline. Although a slower economy is a contributory factor, the carriers seeing the biggest declines are the ones that have chosen to accelerate capacity growth instead of curtailing it to bring supply more in line with demand.

MINING
            Representatives of the mining industry have told the federal government that they are pushing mining investment out of the country because of bureaucratic red tape. Until the early 1990s, investment averaged around $800 million annually. This year it is expected to be $300 million. The flight of capital results from too many overlapping and inconsistent regulations, particularly in the area of the environment. The provinces and the federal government each have their own sets of rules for how lands are to be set aside for parks and conservation areas and their own requirements for monitoring outflows of chemicals into the environment. In Latin America, where governments are anxious to attract mining investment, a company will usually meet the criteria to open a new mine in six months. In Canada, it could take from five to ten years.

STRAW
            It is estimated that over six million tonnes of straw is available on the Prairie provinces to be converted into new uses. If a domestic industry isn't developed soon, Canada may be importing crop residue fibre for industrial uses in the near future. That six million tonnes could be producing more than $1 billion in products. Also, it is estimated that there will be a global shortfall of wood of over 10 billion tonnes by 2010. A straw industry could greatly diminish this shortfall by reducing the number of trees harvested for lumber. 

REDUCING REVISITED
            Recently, we reported on a rush by the Japanese to buy soap from China which supposedly has reducing properties. In September, the soap recorded sales of $32.4 million, double the sales in the first seven months of 1995. The soap was invented by experts during three years of research into traditional Chinese medicine and has been approved by the Ministry of Health. A survey says it was successful in reducing weight in 76 per cent of cases. It has yet to be explained how the soap works.

RETAILING
            A new $400,000 study of Canadian retailing by the Ontario Retail Sector Advisory Board is painting a bleak picture and warns that up to half of existing companies could be out of business by the year 2000 if they don't become more competitive. It points to lack of innovation, risk-taking, skilled workers and other factors needed to meet the challenge of U.S. competitors. Among factors cited that put Canadian retailers at a competitive disadvantage to their U.S. counterparts are:
* Canadian stores are less competitive and don't respond to new competitive pressures.
* Management structures are too hierarchical.
* Canadian retailers do less market and location research and are less likely to have advanced skills in data and software use.
* They are less innovative with almost all new formats, products and fashion trends emanating from the U.S.
The report also points to a historic lack of competition in Canada as one reason why many retailers can't adjust to new U.S. rivals such as Home Depot and Wal-Mart Stores.  

SIGNS
            A survey of 7,000 people in six countries found that the five linked rings of the Olympics were the most widely recognized logos--92 per cent of those surveyed correctly identified the symbol. The survey was carried out in Australia, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The McDonald's and Shell logos were recognized by 88 per cent and the Christian cross by 54 per cent. Only 36 per cent identified the United Nations symbol.

MAIL ORDER
            Mail order catalogue shopping is worth $2.5 billion (U.S.) a year in Canada with purchases averaging $94 annually per capita against $240 in the U.S. Canadians are more finicky than their southern neighbours, wanting more than just low prices and superior quality when purchasing from a catalogue. They also demand simple order forms, toll-free numbers for ordering, delivery within three to four days and a variety of payment options. However, Canadians reward mail order houses that meet their demands. Response rates to catalogues and other direct mail in Canada register between three and four percent, more than double the U.S rate. Experts forecast that the Canadian business will reach the same level as the U.S by the end of the decade making the market worth $6.6 billion (U.S.) annually.

INTERNET
            The Swiss government's data protection commissioner has warned Internet users that their data are not safe from manipulation on the global computer network. The main complaint is that there are no standard international or global rules for the protection of information that are legally binding beyond national boundaries. Switzerland has the world's second highest rate of personal computer ownership after the United States, and 200,000 Internet users in a population of seven million.

SUPERFUND
            In 1996, the federal government is likely to launch a technology superfund targeted at a handful of key export-oriented industries including defence, aerospace, environment, biotechnology and parts of the computer sector. Called the National Technology Investment Program, the fund could range from $150 million to $500 million depending on how many sectors are folded into the program. The fund will consist of repayable grants and be available to help companies develop new products with export potential. Companies will pay back the government from profits they earn once their products hit the market.

HOURS
            U.S. industrial workers put in more hours than those in any other industrialized country in 1994, with Japan second and Canada third. Workers in the U.S put in 1,994 hours a year. In Japan they worked 1,964 hours and in Canada 1,898 hours. German industrial labourers worked the fewest hours, 1,527 a year. The second lowest spot was shared between Belgium and Denmark where workers put in 1,581 hours. For comparison this translates into a 38.3 hour work week in the U.S. industry and 29.3 hours a week in Germany. The Canadian work week is 36.5 hours.

NEWSPAPERS
            Daily newspaper readership in Canada has slipped by two percentage points to 65 per cent of adults on any given weekday. The decline appears to follow changes in average daily circulation which fell 3.3 per cent this year. Among other things, circulation has been hurt by increases in cover prices and labour disruptions in the professional hockey and baseball leagues. Readership of weekend newspapers also fell two per cent to 73 per cent of adults. Canadians spend 46 minutes on average reading a newspaper on a weekday.     

BANK ROBBERIES
            Canadian banks have the dubious distinction of being the most robbed in the industrialized world according to the European Banking Federation. The report found Canadian banks are targets more often because thieves don't get away with much cash and have to go back for more. One out of every six bank branches was held up last year but the average take was only $2,900, the lowest among the countries surveyed. Banks in the U.S., where one in seven branches was hit last year, were the second most frequently robbed with the average amount taken being $14,500. European banks were robbed less often--one in 21 branches--but the average take was $29,000. Luxembourg was the highest with an average take of $365,000 while Switzerland averaged $200,000 per robbery.      

MARKETS
            Experts say that Canadian business is missing a potentially lucrative market in the country's fastest growing ethnic group--1.1 million people of aboriginal origin. The federal government has estimated that the aboriginal population will grow by 50 per cent from 1991 to 2016. More than 50 per cent of the population is now under the age of 25. Indian, Inuit and Metis bands already control about 20 per cent of Canada's land and, depending on the outcome of land claims, could end up with as much as 30 per cent by 2000. In 1969 there were 800 aboriginal people with postsecondary education, by 1991 the figure had climbed to 107,000.

BRIBES
            According to a U.S. Department of Commerce report, foreign companies have used bribes to edge out U.S. competitors on about $45 billion of international business deals. The report contains hundreds of examples of bribery as well as legitimate, often government-assisted, export promotions. The stakes for U.S. companies are huge with the report predicting that over the next decade more than $1 trillion in overseas capital projects will come up for bid. Based on the past, prospects for U.S. companies aren't good. The report looked at 200 international deals over the past eight years and found that U.S. firms lost about half partly because other countries were more aggressive. The lost contracts would have meant about $25 billion in sales and have added 200,000 jobs.

AUDIENCES
            According to Statistics Canada, Canada's professional performing arts companies saw audiences shrink in 1993-94. The study included 471 companies representing theatre, music, dance and opera. About 13.3 million people attended a performance in Canada in 1993-94, down 2.2 per cent from 1992, 2.5 in 1991 and down 3 per cent from 1989-90. Only opera companies are bucking the trend with a 2 per cent increase in audiences over the past 10 years.
However, performing arts groups reported a collective income of $383.3 million with the majority coming from earned revenues.

CITIES
            In mid-1994, 2.5 billion people, 45 per cent of the world's population, lived in urban areas, a proportion the UN expects to rise to 61 per cent by 2025. A growing share of urbanites--13 per cent in 1970 but a projected 18 per cent in 2015--live in cities of more than 5 million people. In 1950 only New York and London were mega-cities, with populations of eight million or more. By 1970, five of the 11 mega-cities were in the developing world and the UN predicts that by 2015, 21 of the 33 mega-cities will be in Asia.

FRUIT
            British Columbia produces 80 per cent of Canada's cranberries which ranks as third largest producer in the world.

THE HEREAFTER
* Olay, A Turkish newspaper in Gaziantep is offering a free grave to all readers who collect
99 daily coupons.

* The Lutheran Church in Kalmar, Sweden, has applied for permission to link its on-site crematory to the church's heating system.

* Fabrizio Caselli, a Tuscan watchmaker, is offering Italians who fear premature burial a coffin that includes a beeper, a two-way speaker and a survival kit.

* A Bulgarian fortune-teller has wrecked her career. Aishe Akif of Dobrich was calling the spirits on Friday the 13th, when her tape recorder chewed the tape and the spirits went silent.

Sunday, October 01, 1995

OCTOBER 1995 Economic Digest - Importing and Exporting



OCTOBER 1995 Edition

INVISIBLE TRADE
            The worldwide total of service exports, non-commercial transfers and income from overseas assets reached $2.4 trillion in 1994, a record. The U.S. earned most from invisible trade in 1993 with exports worth $299 billion, ahead of Japan ($204 billion) and France ($188 billion). Invisible exports mean most to the economies of Belgium and Luxembourg; they were equivalent to more than half of their combined GDP in 1993. America's invisible exports equalled 4.8 per cent of its GDP. Canada's were worth $25 billion.

HARMONIZATION
            Harmonized domestic policies--including common standards, intellectual property protection and investment rules--are rapidly overtaking lower tariffs as the main focus of global trade liberalization. According to the Canadian Trade Minister, "The era of the tariff is over, to a large degree. Free trade is moving into domestic areas that were previously outside international scrutiny or rules." He also stated that, with the exception of agriculture, there will soon be no significant tariff barriers between Canada and Europe and that pushing for transatlantic free trade, or TAFTA, is a next logical step on the trade front.

FOODNET
            Developed by the Food Institute of Canada (FIC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, FoodNet is an Internet site dedicated to meeting the information needs of the food industry. It provides companies with immediate access to marketing, technical and regulatory information, with data added on a regular basis. Foodnet has the capability of quickly transferring large files of information to clients and is linked directly to sites such as the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, U.S. sites such as Agriculture, Food and Drug Administration and other international sites , the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), for example. FoodNet's World Wide Web address is "http://foodnet.fic.ca."

INTERPROVINCIAL TRADE
            A new study from the C.D. Howe Institute states that a lot of work needs to be done to ensure freer trade among Canada's 10 provinces and to tear down the internal barriers to the movement of goods and services. The Federal and Provincial governments have already missed deadlines for sorting out disagreements on energy and procurement policies for municipalities, schools and hospitals. There is scepticism that governments will either remove the remaining barriers or live up to the provisions already worked out.

STOCK MARKETS
            A July survey by Morgan Stanley shows Canada's stock markets had the second-best performance in the developed world after Australia. In the year to date, Finland has performed best, followed by the U.S. and Sweden. At the other end of the scale, Japan, Singapore and Austria performed worst. In the emerging markets category, Israeli, Turkish and Peruvian stocks all showed strong gains while Taiwanese, Sri Lanka and Colombia stocks slipped badly.  

COMPETITIVENESS
            Canada is now the 12th most competitive country in the world, climbing from 16th last year, according to the World Economic Forum in Geneva which examines the competitiveness of 48 countries. For the second year in a row, the U.S was the most competitive, followed by Singapore and Hong Kong. Japan comes in fourth, a significant decline for a country which led the rankings for eight years running. Russia is last but shows tremendous opportunities for the future. Canada's higher ranking is attributed, in part, to the Canada-U.S FTA and NAFTA. Specific Canadian areas of improvement are government, management and infrastructure. 

INDUSTRY
            Canadian industry operated at 83.3 per cent of capacity in the second quarter, down from 84.8% in the first quarter, the sharpest drop in four years, according to Statistics Canada. All but one of 22 manufacturing industries reduced their levels of capacity use. The construction industry, hurt by the weak housing market, showed the biggest drop. The paper industry was the only industry to show an increase in capacity and plans to spend $4 billion on plant and equipment this year, almost double its 1994 capital spending. 

TIDINESS
            Stocks of U.S. companies whose executives left their desks messy rose an average of $3.50 last year according to a survey of 1,112 top executives. Stock prices of companies with neat executives fell an average of almost a dollar. About 58 per cent of  executives surveyed said they kept their desks spotless. Thirty-one per cent said their desks are messy and 11 per cent somewhere in between. The survey suggests it may be worth checking an executive's desk when looking for a new job. Only 16 per cent of executives with neat desks believe in Christmas bonuses as a rule, while 48 per cent of messy executives approve of bonuses.

WEIGHT
            Major international steel makers have begun a battle against the aluminum producers to win the hearts and minds of the car manufacturers. A 32-member consortium of steel makers announced it can now build frames in the mid-size car range that will weigh 35 per cent less. The new design would reduce costs by 14 per cent and make cars more rigid and thus quieter. They claim a lighter car body will also reduce weight elsewhere because smaller and lighter engines, tires, suspensions, brakes and other components will be required.

COAL
            Prices are up and world demand continues to increase and there is enough coal buried in Western Canada and the Maritimes to last for centuries. But the coal industry is worrying about how the country can become a bigger player in the flourishing thermal coal market. Canada has not been successful in reducing overall production and transportation costs to the level where we could export as much thermal coal as we do metallurgical coal.
Canada's high transportation costs, increased by the country's vast geography make it hard to take advantage of increased demand. Much of Canada's coal travels more than 1,000km before reaching West Coast ports. The coal industry employs 10,000 directly and 50,000 more indirectly.

FARMING
            Congressmen have complained to President Clinton that Canada is violating two international trade agreements (NAFTA and the GATT) by denying access to U.S. products. Ottawa and Washington are negotiating market access for dairy and poultry products.  American dairy farmers thought they got greater access to Canadian markets through NAFTA, but Canada is arguing that the Uruguay Round of the GATT takes precedence. Under that set of trading rules, quotas and marketing boards that have protected Canadian industries are being phased out. But Canada is replacing them with high tariffs--ranging from 100 to 350 per cent on products like eggs, chicken, milk and butter. This also guarantees that Canadians pay more for these products than they should under NAFTA.

THE DOLLAR
            The recent softening of the economy has not kept Canadians from spending big on travel. The Conference Board predicts Canadians will have spent 6.3 per cent more on travel in 1995 than last year compared to a 5.8 growth in 1994. The report suggests that hotel occupancy rates and domestic air travel for both business and pleasure have remained buoyant. The low dollar is attracting international tourists and is partly responsible for the positive forecast. For the same reason,  Canadians are  more likely to take their vacations on this side of the border. The survey also found that, more often than in the early 90's, Canadians are taking planes to reach their vacation destinations in Canada. After two years of declining ticket sales, holiday air travel increased in the first six months of the year.

CHEMISTRY
             According to the University of Texas, a windshield that "washes" itself with sunshine and wall coverings that use light to self-clean may soon be a reality. The magic ingredient is titanium dioxide, a photocatalyst that strips organic matter from surfaces. Windshields coated with the substance could be manufactured for $10 to $25 in added costs with consumers paying from $50 to $100 more per car. The Japanese have already harnessed this chemical by unveiling the worlds first self cleaning bathroom and kitchen tile which kills cigarette and cooking smoke stains and eliminates common indoor odours. Hospital tests show the self-scouring tiles removing 99.9 per cent of all bacteria.

SOFT DRINKS
            After nearly a decade without a new product, Coca-Cola is pushing out new products at a record pace which has helped it  capture more than 80 per cent of the growth in the U.S. soft drink market. But Japan is its most profitable market. Japanese consumers are notorious for constantly demanding new products. Companies typically launch between 700 and 800 drinks a year, and few stay in vending machines for more than a month. Two years ago Coke built a sophisticated product-development centre to produce new beverages more quickly. Launch time for new drinks has been cut to 30 days from 90 and Coke releases as many as 50 new beverages a year.

MARKETING ON THE INTERNET
            Some large companies have been quietly registering Internet domain names which give them worldwide rights to those names. Proctor & Gamble has registered names such as "badbreath.com," as well as 35 other maladies including "diarrhea.com" (sic), "dandruff.com," "headache.com," "underarms.com," and "pimples.com." P&G has also registered 52 of its products from Luvs to Metamucil. Kraft Foods has locked up 133 important product names, from "velveeta.com," to "sanka.com" and 21 generic foods groups including "saladdressing.com," "weiners.com," bologna.com," and even "frozendinners.com." In all, companies have registered 10,000 new names in the first two weeks of August bringing the total number of registered commercial domains to 100,000.

HOMES
            560 "electronically enabled homes" have gone on sale in Ontario, built by Intercom Ontario, a consortium of more than 70 high-tech companies. The aim is to discover what home buyers want in the smart home of the future. The homes will be connected by high-capacity fibre-optic and coaxial cable lines to  a powerful computer switch able to transmit video signals down a phone line. Special plugs and wiring will connect telephones, computers and television sets to a state-of-the-art, high speed network. Jacks will be installed in each house that can move information at a speed of 10 million bits a second. Each resident will be provided with a personal computer and participants will be monitored during the trial.

GENETICS
            Plants that grow in the dark are possible with technology that transfers material for a luminous protein in certain jellyfish into vegetation. A possible application would be roses that, when placed on a table between two lovers, would glow as emotions rose and the lovers' breathing became heavier!

MORE ROMANCE
            According to The Miami Herald, Wal-Mart, the No. 1 retailer in the U.S., once fired two employees who dated each other and  refused to stop. In an ensuing lawsuit, the lovers lost because a judge said dating is not a recreational activity.

TRIVIA
* In England, an association  called Pipedown has recently published a list of restaurants that are free of Muzak.

* In 1992, 14 Canadian millionaires collected and kept unemployment insurance benefits.

* Locusts contain more protein per pound than a T-bone steak.